regional tas — TAS1

The spot price in Tasmania sits at **$88.18/MWh** as at 06:30 AEST, with total demand at **1,041.83 MW**. Reviewing the past 24 hours of price history, the region has traded in a fairly contained band — dipping into the low-to-mid $50s–$70s during overnight off-peak intervals (roughly midnight to 02:00 AEST) before recovering to a sustained $87–$88/MWh range through the business day and into the current interval. Brief spikes to $93.76–$93.77/MWh appeared at several intervals across the trading day, consistent with short-duration dispatch pricing events rather than sustained supply stress. The 24-hour price profile reflects a typical autumn shoulder demand pattern: moderate daytime load in the 950–1,122 MW range with overnight troughs pulling back to sub-900 MW.

Tasmania's generation mix is currently running on **504.11 MW hydro** and **72.09 MW wind**, with gas OCGT at **0 MW**. That combination puts total tracked generation at approximately **576 MW**, with the balance of the ~1,042 MW demand met by Basslink import flows from Victoria — a normal operating configuration for Tasmania. Carbon intensity sits at **0 tCO2/MWh** with renewable penetration at **100%** of local generation, a figure that has been sustained continuously across every recorded interval in the past 24 hours. Absent gas dispatch and with Basslink imports supplementing local renewables, the effective grid-level carbon outcome depends on the Victorian firming source, but local dispatch is entirely zero-emissions.

Predispatch forecasts for the **07:00–07:30 AEST** half-hours are locked in at **$96.22/MWh**, a step up of roughly $8/MWh from the current spot. This forecast has been stable since approximately 17:00 AEST yesterday, having revised down from early morning predispatch prints as high as **$162/MWh** (02:32 AEST) through a sequence of resets to $106, $101, $99, and finally $96.22/MWh by 17:00 AEST. The convergence and stability of the $96.22/MWh figure across the past seven or more predispatch runs gives reasonable confidence in that level as the near-term price ceiling for the morning peak, barring dispatch changes or Basslink flow variations.

**Market notices are a significant flag today.** AEMO has issued an unusually high volume of active **PRICES SUBJECT TO REVIEW** notices under NER clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs) covering a continuous sequence of intervals from 22 April 20:30 AEST through to today 23 April 06:05 AEST — more than 20 active review notices remain open. Several earlier intervals have been resolved as **PRICES UNCHANGED** (confirmed), but the bulk remain active. Traders and settlement managers should treat prices across this extended window as provisional; retroactive revisions are possible. The load shift windows from the optimiser indicate the **23:00–01:30 AEST overnight window** offers the most attractive off-peak pricing, with several intervals forecast sub-$65/MWh and a cluster rated "excellent" quality, representing the primary demand flexibility opportunity for the coming night.