regional sa — SA1

The spot price in South Australia sits at $86.77/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 1,346 MW. That price is materially softer than the sustained $160–$180/MWh range that dominated the morning peak earlier today (17:00–19:30 AEST), and well below the spike to $360.55/MWh seen at 19:00 AEST. The 24-hour arc tells a clear story: prices collapsed into deeply negative territory during overnight minimum demand (bottoming near -$4/MWh between 11:30 and 13:30 AEST), spiked hard through the morning ramp from 15:30 AEST, and have now eased back into the high-$80s as demand retreats from its 1,727 MW peak.

The generation mix at the most recent interval is wind at 468.62 MW and gas CCGT at 102.46 MW, with gas OCGT and solar both at zero — solar output is nil given the overnight timing. Renewable penetration sits at 82.06% and carbon intensity is 0.0879 tCO2/MWh, both reflecting near-total wind dominance at this hour. This is a sharp reversal from the morning peak, when carbon intensity reached 0.4246 tCO2/MWh and renewable penetration fell as low as 20.41% as gas generation carried the bulk of supply into a high-demand window with limited wind contribution.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST (21:00 UTC) interval cluster around $95–$118/MWh across recent runs, with the most recent forecast (20:01 UTC run) landing at $118.10/MWh. The 07:30 AEST interval is tracking considerably higher, with the latest run at $170.44/MWh and a range across runs of $103–$170/MWh. This signals the market is pricing in a morning ramp event as solar is absent and demand builds — traders should treat the $118–$170/MWh band as the operative range for the next two half-hour intervals. Load window data from 08:30–11:30 AEST (UTC 22:00–01:00) shows forecast prices deeply negative, ranging from roughly -$3/MWh to -$23/MWh, consistent with expected wind and solar generation overwhelming minimum overnight demand.

There are 11 active market notices, all "PRICES SUBJECT TO REVIEW" under NER clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs), covering intervals from 00:05 AEST through to 16:05 AEST today. Several earlier notices have since been resolved as "PRICES UNCHANGED," confirming no retrospective repricing for those intervals. The volume of review notices across both overnight and early-morning periods warrants close monitoring — any revision to low or negative price intervals could affect settlement for large consumers and generators with positions in those windows. No network or generation forced outage notices are active for SA1 at this time.