regional qld — QLD1
The Queensland spot price sits at $71.69/MWh with total demand at 6,473 MW as of 06:30 AEST. That price is firmly elevated relative to the overnight trough, which saw sustained negative pricing from around 07:20 AEST through to approximately 13:00 AEST — intervals where the RRP fell as low as -$2.90/MWh as overnight demand dropped below 4,600 MW. The morning ramp drove prices sharply higher, peaking at $92.84/MWh around 17:25 AEST before settling into the current $71–$72/MWh range through the late evening. The 24-hour price profile shows a classic daily arc, but the overnight negative price run was notably extended and deep, indicating sustained excess supply against low demand through the small hours.
The generation mix at the latest interval (06:00 AEST trading window) is dominated by black coal at 2,393 MW, with hydro contributing 86 MW and gas OCGT running at a negligible 0.06 MW. Solar output is zero, consistent with the overnight/early morning window. Renewable penetration sits at just 3.48% — a significant contraction from the overnight period where renewables reached as high as 23.1% (driven by wind) when demand was low. Carbon intensity is 0.8494 tCO2/MWh, up from a low of around 0.677 tCO2/MWh seen during the overnight renewable-heavy period, reflecting the current coal-dominant dispatch profile as daytime demand builds without solar contribution yet.
Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST trading interval point to prices consolidating in the $64.65–$64.83/MWh range, stepping down from current levels as the morning demand peak moderates. The 07:30 AEST target is similarly forecast at $54.75/MWh in the most recent run, suggesting the market anticipates a price softening as solar generation begins to enter the mix and load stabilises. Earlier in the predispatch sequence, forecasts for these intervals were tracking closer to $52–$54/MWh, with recent runs revising slightly higher — watch for further upward drift if morning demand exceeds expectation.
AEMO has issued a substantial run of active "Prices Subject to Review" notices under NER Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs), covering intervals spanning 22 April from 08:00 AEST through to 23 April 16:05 AEST. This is an unusually high volume of concurrent review notices — over 30 active — and traders should treat published prices across that window as potentially subject to revision. Several earlier intervals (20:45 AEST and 18:50 AEST on 22 April) have already been confirmed unchanged following review, but the bulk of today's early-morning intervals remain open. Any participant with exposure to those periods should monitor AEMO market notices closely before settlement.