regional nsw — NSW1
The NSW spot price sits at $84.79/MWh against a 24-hour average that ranged from near-zero overnight to a morning peak of $98.14/MWh, placing the current price at the elevated end of today's post-dawn range. Total demand is 7,668 MW, consistent with a typical Thursday late-evening profile as the grid transitions out of the evening ramp. The price briefly spiked to $95.50/MWh at 06:25 AEST before easing, and has settled back to the $84.79/MWh level where it has anchored repeatedly across the day, suggesting this is a key dispatch price point in the current supply stack.
The generation mix is dominated by black coal at 4,857 MW, with hydro contributing 306 MW, wind 221 MW, and solar 101 MW. Gas CCGT and OCGT are both at zero MW, indicating peaking plant is not required at current demand levels. Renewables are contributing 11.45% of supply at this interval, up from a trough of around 1.9% during the pre-dawn period and off the morning peak of approximately 17.4% when solar was at full output. Carbon intensity sits at 0.7792 tCO2/MWh, improved from the overnight high of 0.8623 tCO2/MWh recorded around 14:20 AEST when renewable penetration was lowest, reflecting the intra-day solar contribution that has since faded with the sun.
Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST interval (21:00 UTC) point to $92.34/MWh on the most recent run, with earlier runs ranging from $78.54 to $114.05/MWh — the wide spread reflecting model uncertainty as the grid moves into the evening demand trough. The 07:30 AEST (21:30 UTC) forecast converges more tightly in the $84.79–$97.65/MWh band. Load window data shows overnight pricing from 08:00 AEST onward is expected to be extremely low, with multiple intervals forecast at or below zero $/MWh through until approximately 16:30 AEST, consistent with the overnight demand trough and limited ability for coal plant to back down quickly.
AEMO has issued a significant volume of active market notices under NER Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs) covering numerous intervals across today, spanning 14:10 AEST through to 16:05 AEST (00:05 UTC through 06:05 UTC 23 April). Eleven notices remain active and unresolved at time of writing, with three prior intervals confirmed as prices unchanged following review. The high frequency of MII reviews across consecutive intervals is notable and warrants monitoring — while prior reviews resolved without price changes, the open notices covering early-morning intervals mean some published prices for those periods remain subject to revision. Traders with positions exposed to those intervals should treat current settlement prices as provisional.