NEM Overview

Spot prices across the NEM are sitting in a tight $71–$88/MWh band as of the 06:30 AEST interval, with Tasmania the highest at $88.18/MWh and Queensland the cheapest at $71.69/MWh. NSW ($84.79/MWh) and SA ($86.77/MWh) are close together near the top of the range, while Victoria ($73.48/MWh) tracks just above Queensland. The NSW–QLD interconnector is binding at its import limit of 725 MW into NSW, which is compressing Queensland prices relative to its northern neighbour and explains much of the $13/MWh spread between the two regions. The V-SA interconnector is also binding at its export ceiling of 193 MW, pushing power from Victoria into SA and keeping SA prices contained despite that region running predominantly on wind at this hour.

NEM-wide renewable penetration sits at 37.2% on the gridIQ score, though the regional picture is sharply divergent. Tasmania is at 100% renewable, running on 504 MW of hydro and 72 MW of wind. SA is at 82% renewable with 469 MW of wind carrying the load alongside 102 MW of gas CCGT. Victoria's wind fleet is generating 591 MW but brown coal at 2,165 MW dominates that region's mix, holding renewable share to 21% and pushing carbon intensity to 0.95 tCO2/MWh — the highest on the mainland. Queensland is at just 3.5% renewable penetration this interval, with 2,393 MW of black coal and negligible contributions from solar (zero, as expected overnight) and gas. NSW shows 11% renewable share from 221 MW of wind, 101 MW of solar, and 306 MW of hydro, with black coal at 4,857 MW providing the bulk of supply. NEM-wide carbon intensity scores at 37.9 out of 100 (lower is less carbon-intensive in the scoring framework), consistent with an overnight profile dominated by thermal baseload.

The standout operational issue this morning is an extended run of AEMO market notices flagging prices subject to review under Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs), covering intervals from approximately 00:05 through to 06:05 AEST today — more than two dozen consecutive intervals across the early morning. Two earlier intervals (20:45 and 18:50 AEST on 22 April) have since been confirmed unchanged, but the bulk of tonight's overnight prices remain under active review. Traders should treat any positions referencing those intervals with caution until AEMO issues confirmations. The grid stress score of 67.2 and price stability score of 71.8 reflect this elevated uncertainty rather than any physical supply constraint — demand across the NEM is moderate, with NSW leading at 7,668 MW and no heating or cooling load of significance given mild autumn temperatures ranging from 11°C in Tasmania to 18°C in SA.

Looking ahead through today, the absence of solar potential overnight transitions to morning ramp conditions as the sun rises, particularly in SA and QLD where clear skies are forecast. SA's wind potential remains moderate (0.6) and should sustain strong renewable output through the day. The binding NSW–QLD interconnector warrants monitoring — any change in Queensland dispatch or a shift in flow direction could quickly reprice both regions. With overnight prices still under AEMO review and grid stress elevated, traders should watch for confirmation notices across those early