Load Advisor

Spot prices across the NEM are currently elevated in the evening peak — NSW1 sits at $84.79/MWh, SA1 at $86.77/MWh, TAS1 at $88.18/MWh, VIC1 at $73.48/MWh, and QLD1 at $71.69/MWh. Predispatch forecasts show prices collapsing sharply from 08:30 AEST tonight (22:30 UTC) and remaining at or near zero — and frequently negative — across NSW1, VIC1, SA1, and QLD1 through to approximately 16:30 AEST (06:30 UTC). The deepest troughs are forecast between 10:00–13:30 AEST (00:00–03:30 UTC), where NSW1 prices will reach as low as -$8.92/MWh, VIC1 as low as -$24.67/MWh, SA1 as low as -$41.13/MWh, and QLD1 as low as -$25.01/MWh. TAS1 stands apart — prices there remain elevated throughout at $63–$86/MWh across the same window, indicating a decoupled market condition; load shifting in TAS1 will not yield the same savings available on the mainland.

The standout opportunity is SA1, which offers the largest absolute savings of any region. Prices are forecast to hit -$35/MWh to -$41/MWh between 13:00–14:30 AEST (03:00–04:30 UTC), representing a swing of over $125/MWh against the current spot price. VIC1 is the next most attractive, with sustained negative prices from 09:00 AEST (23:00 UTC) through 15:30 AEST (05:30 UTC), dipping as deep as -$24.67/MWh across multiple intervals. NSW1 and QLD1 also offer strong negative-price windows through the same overnight and early-morning period, though the magnitude is somewhat less extreme than VIC1 and SA1.

The primary window to avoid is the current period through to approximately 08:00 AEST — prices across all mainland regions are in the $70–$90/MWh range and predispatch forecasts show SA1 may spike further given recent near-term forecasts above $100/MWh. On TAS1, the load-shift calculus is negative across all windows today; prices are broadly flat and elevated, so flexible load in that region should remain on standard scheduling.

**Recommendation:** Schedule all deferrable mainland loads — industrial processes, thermal storage charging, EV fleet charging, and pump-storage fill — to commence no earlier than 08:30 AEST and concentrate activity between 10:00 and 14:30 AEST. SA1 and VIC1 operators should prioritise this window aggressively; at prices between -$15/MWh and -$41/MWh, consumption in this period carries a direct revenue benefit, not merely a cost avoidance. NSW1 and QLD1 loads should target the 09:30–14:00 AEST band. Plan to curtail or reschedule any flexible demand back out of the market by 16:30 AEST, when prices across all regions are forecast to recover toward the $20–$36/MWh range ahead of the