commodity demand vic — VIC1

Victoria's spot price sits at $73.48/MWh with demand at 5,072 MW at 06:30 AEST, a level consistent with the early-morning ramp that drove prices from near-zero overnight into the $60–$100/MWh band. The demand-price relationship today has been textbook: prices remained at or below zero from roughly 08:00 to 14:00 AEST overnight (UTC 22:00–04:00) as demand troughed between 3,800–4,200 MW, then climbed sharply as demand recovered through the morning. The morning peak reached 6,191 MW at 18:05 AEST (08:05 UTC) with prices hitting $82–$100/MWh, illustrating how each 500 MW increment above 5,500 MW translates to a meaningful price step-up under current supply stack conditions.

The current 5,072 MW level represents a post-morning-peak retreat — demand peaked around 6,191 MW near 18:00–18:30 AEST and has since eased as commercial loads shed. Price has followed demand down from the $82–$100/MWh range seen at peak into the low-to-mid $70s/MWh. The generation mix at the most recent trading interval shows brown coal at 2,165 MW, wind at 591 MW, and gas OCGT at 110 MW, with solar at zero given it is pre-dawn. Carbon intensity sits at 0.9463 tCO2/MWh with renewables at 20.63% — well below the 37–42% renewable share seen overnight when wind was more prominent and thermal plant was backing off.

Forecast prices for the 07:00–07:30 AEST half-hours (21:00–21:30 UTC) cluster in the $74–$94/MWh range across successive AEMO dispatch forecasts, signalling that the market anticipates demand to rebuild as the morning commercial load ramp resumes. The most recent forecasts for 07:30 AEST are gravitating toward $81–$84/MWh, consistent with demand pushing back above 5,500 MW as businesses open. The key price inflection point to watch is the 5,500–5,800 MW range — each time demand has crossed that threshold today, prices have stepped into the $80–$100/MWh band.

Traders should note that AEMO has issued a large number of "Prices Subject to Review" market notices under NER Clause 3.9.2B covering multiple intervals across both 22 and 23 April, including intervals from the overnight period through to this morning. Several of these remain active and unresolved. Any retrospective price adjustments from these reviews could materially alter settlement outcomes for those intervals, and positions taken on overnight negative-price periods in particular carry revision risk until AEMO issues confirmed outcomes.