commodity demand tas — TAS1

Tasmania's spot price sits at $88.18/MWh with demand at 1,041.83 MW as of 06:30 AEST, and the price-demand relationship across today's session tells a clear story. Demand troughed at around 787 MW in the early hours (around 12:55 AEST), where prices softened to the low-to-mid $70s/MWh range. As demand climbed through the morning peak — reaching a session high of 1,121.88 MW at 19:00 AEST — prices lifted to $88.06/MWh, establishing a tight band that has held through the evening build. Notably, price sensitivity to demand in Tasmania is relatively muted within this range; the $87–$89/MWh band has been largely sticky across a 300 MW demand swing, pointing to a well-supplied dispatch stack with generation headroom in hydro (currently 504.11 MW) and wind (72.09 MW) absorbing the load trajectory without material price pressure.

The evening demand ramp is now underway, with total demand rising from around 987 MW at 06:05 AEST to the current 1,041.83 MW — a gain of roughly 55 MW in under 30 minutes. Forecasts are consistent and firm: the AEMO pre-dispatch stack has pegged the 07:30 AEST interval at $96.22/MWh across every run since approximately 17:00 AEST, a step up of around $8/MWh from current actuals. That forecast has been stable for over three hours with no revision, suggesting AEMO's dispatch model anticipates demand continuing its upward trajectory into the 07:30–08:00 AEST window as the evening consumption peak consolidates above 1,050–1,100 MW.

Traders and demand-side managers should note a significant market notice flag: AEMO has issued "prices subject to review" notices under NEM Rule 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs) across a large number of intervals spanning today's trading day — from overnight intervals through to intervals covering 06:05 AEST this morning. Multiple earlier intervals have been confirmed unchanged on review, but the volume of active review notices is unusually high and several remain unresolved. Any position settling across these intervals carries review risk; confirmed unchanged outcomes have been the pattern so far, but the active notices for today's early-morning intervals (00:05 through 06:05 AEST) are still live. Load windows in the $62–$72/MWh range are visible from the 09:00–09:30 AEST period through to the early hours of tomorrow, representing meaningful savings against the current $88/MWh spot and the forecast $96.22/MWh evening peak for demand-side participants with flexibility to shift load.