commodity demand sa — SA1

South Australia's spot price sits at $86.77/MWh with demand at 1,346 MW as of 06:30 AEST, a level that reflects the post-evening-peak trough following today's demand cycle. The price has eased from the $103–$121/MWh range that prevailed during the 20:00–20:25 AEST window, when demand was tracking at similar levels around 1,342–1,348 MW — indicating that small shifts in supply-side positioning, not demand movement alone, are driving intraday price volatility at this load level. Wind is currently generating 469 MW with gas CCGT contributing 102 MW and solar at zero, consistent with the overnight period.

The day's demand profile has been sharply shaped by the morning ramp. Demand troughed near 472–478 MW between 13:30–14:00 AEST (03:30–04:00 UTC) when prices hit negative territory as low as -$4/MWh, then climbed rapidly through the pre-dawn ramp to a session peak of 1,739 MW at 18:35 AEST (08:35 UTC), where prices held at $161–$181/MWh for an extended period across the 17:00–19:00 AEST window. That sustained elevated pricing at demand above 1,680 MW confirms the marginal supply stack tightens materially above roughly 1,650 MW in the current dispatch environment. The 09:00 AEST interval produced a brief $360.55/MWh spike at 1,722 MW, the highest price of the session, consistent with a constraint or rebid event at peak load.

Forecast prices for the next two half-hour intervals — 07:00 AEST ($118/MWh) and 07:30 AEST ($170/MWh) — signal that the market expects the morning demand ramp to begin reasserting upward price pressure as SA moves into the breakfast period. This aligns with the pattern from today's earlier cycle, where prices escalated from sub-$60/MWh at 15:30 AEST to above $160/MWh within 90 minutes as demand crossed the 1,500 MW threshold. Traders should note that the 07:30 AEST forecast at $170/MWh implies the market is pricing in a return to the 1,550–1,650 MW demand range within the next hour, at which point the supply stack historically re-enters the steeper section seen throughout the 17:00–19:30 AEST window.

Operators should also note that AEMO has issued an extensive series of "Prices Subject to Review" notices under NER clause 3.9.2B covering multiple intervals across today's overnight and early-morning period — including 00:05, 00:45, 01:25, 02:05, 02:45, 03:15, 03:45, 04:10, 04:45, 05:25, and 06:05 AEST. With eleven active review notices still unresolved, settlement prices for a significant block of today's low-demand overnight intervals remain subject to revision. Participants with exposure to those intervals should treat current price records as provisional.