commodity demand qld — QLD1
Queensland spot price sits at $71.69/MWh with demand at 6,473 MW as of 06:30 AEST, tracking upward through the evening after demand troughed near 4,537 MW in the early hours. The price-demand relationship over the past 24 hours is stark: demand above roughly 7,500 MW during this morning's business peak drove prices to $85–93/MWh between 07:20 and 07:30 AEST, while demand collapsing below 5,000 MW overnight produced sustained negative pricing down to -$2.90/MWh. The current 6,473 MW level sits in a mid-range zone where prices are holding in the low-to-mid $70s/MWh — well below the morning peak but rising steadily from the $37–40/MWh range observed through the afternoon trough.
The evening demand build is now underway, with demand climbing roughly 1,300 MW over the past two hours from around 5,540 MW at 03:00 AEST. AEMO forecasts for the 07:00–07:30 AEST window point to prices stabilising in the $54–65/MWh range, a meaningful step down from current levels, suggesting the market anticipates demand peaking and then easing as the overnight trough approaches. The morning peak — which reached 7,775 MW around 08:00–08:10 AEST — is the day's demand high-water mark, and with autumn conditions (14.9°C, minimal cooling demand, heating demand only 3.1 units) there is no expectation of that level being challenged again tonight.
Traders should note that AEMO has issued an unusually high volume of "Prices Subject to Review" notices under NER clause 3.9.2B, covering multiple intervals across today from 00:05 through to 06:05 AEST. Several of these remain active and unresolved, meaning prices across the overnight period — including the negative-price intervals — carry revision risk. Settlement positions that benefited from sub-zero prices between roughly midnight and 06:00 AEST should be treated with caution until AEMO confirms or adjusts those intervals. The load window data shows negative forecast prices extending well into the 08:00–09:30 AEST window (tomorrow's overnight), with the deepest forecast values approaching -$25/MWh, consistent with the pattern seen in the current overnight.