commodity demand nsw — NSW1

NSW spot price sits at $84.79/MWh with demand at 7,668 MW as of 06:30 AEST, tracking the late-evening ramp that began around 05:00 AEST when demand was near its overnight trough of 5,900 MW and prices were at or below zero. The price-demand relationship across today's data is pronounced: the session peak of 9,192 MW at 18:05 AEST coincided with prices holding in the $80–$98/MWh band through the morning, while the overnight trough between 13:00–14:00 AEST (UTC 03:00–04:00) saw demand collapse to around 5,900 MW and prices print repeatedly negative, bottoming near -$1.89/MWh. The $95.50/MWh spike at 06:25 AEST (UTC 20:25) underscores how the evening demand ramp — demand climbing from 7,222 MW at 05:00 AEST to 7,689 MW in under 30 minutes — tightens supply margins quickly as overnight surpluses clear.

Forward forecasts for the 07:00 AEST (UTC 21:00) interval have converged in the $84.79–$97.65/MWh range across recent dispatch runs, with the most recent AEMO forecast at $92.34/MWh. This is consistent with demand continuing to climb through the morning peak, which the price history indicates typically reaches 8,500–9,200 MW between 18:00–23:00 AEST (UTC 08:00–13:00). At those demand levels, prices in today's session have held a floor near $76.98–$84.79/MWh with occasional excursions above $90/MWh. The generation mix at the current interval shows black coal at 4,857 MW, hydro at 306 MW, wind at 221 MW, and solar at 101 MW, with gas capacity offline — leaving limited flexible headroom to absorb any demand upside without price pressure.

Traders should note AEMO has issued a significant volume of "Prices Subject to Review" notices under NER Clause 3.9.2B covering multiple intervals across today's overnight period (roughly 00:05–06:05 AEST), citing potential manifestly incorrect inputs. Several of those intervals featured anomalously low or negative prices. Confirmed notices for earlier intervals (12:30, 11:15, 17:30, 18:50 AEST) have returned prices unchanged, but the sheer number of active review notices — spanning more than a dozen intervals — adds uncertainty to settlement values for energy purchased during the overnight trough. Participants with positions in those windows should monitor AEMO market notices closely before treating those prices as final.