Carbon Forecast

Carbon intensity across the NEM sits at sharply contrasting levels this morning. Tasmania records 0.00 tCO2/MWh at 100% renewable penetration, driven entirely by hydro (504 MW) and wind (72 MW). South Australia is the next lowest at 0.09 tCO2/MWh with renewables at 82%, where 469 MW of wind is covering the bulk of load and a modest 102 MW of gas CCGT fills the remainder. At the other end of the scale, Victoria is the highest-intensity region at 0.95 tCO2/MWh — brown coal accounts for 2,165 MW of a mix that also includes 591 MW of wind and 110 MW of gas OCGT, giving just 21% renewable penetration. Queensland sits at 0.85 tCO2/MWh with only 3.5% renewables; black coal provides 2,393 MW and solar is at zero this early in the morning, with hydro contributing a limited 86 MW. NSW is at 0.78 tCO2/MWh with 11.5% renewables — black coal dominates at 4,857 MW, supplemented by 306 MW of hydro and 321 MW combined from wind and solar.

The intraday trajectory for carbon-sensitive scheduling follows a clear pattern. In NSW, intensity reached its daily trough around 09:50 AEST at approximately 0.72 tCO2/MWh as rooftop and utility solar ramped, before climbing back through the afternoon as solar output faded. That same mid-morning solar window applies today — the lowest-intensity period for NSW and QLD loads is expected between approximately 09:00 and 11:30 AEST. SA has sustained low intensity through most of today already, with the 06:00–18:00 AEST window remaining favourable; the data shows intensity dropping as low as 0.07–0.08 tCO2/MWh through the midday and early-evening periods on wind strength. Victoria's intensity has been elevated all day, peaking above 1.09 tCO2/MWh during the afternoon demand period, with only modest relief expected in overnight hours when demand eases.

For carbon-sensitive loads with flexibility, SA offers the most consistently low-intensity window across the full day. NSW and QLD present a narrow green window in the 09:00–11:30 AEST solar peak; outside that band, both regions are coal-dominated and intensities return to the 0.75–0.85 tCO2/MWh range. Victoria's brown coal baseload means intensity remains structurally elevated regardless of time of day, with the overnight trough still sitting near 0.66–0.75 tCO2/MWh. Tasmania's 0.00 tCO2/MWh reading is consistent across all intervals in today's data and represents the lowest-risk destination for any interruptible load or battery charging schedule with access to that supply.