NEM Overview

Spot prices are running in a tight band across the NEM's eastern mainland, with NSW and QLD leading at $134.89/MWh and $134.00/MWh respectively, Victoria at $118.69/MWh, SA at $107.84/MWh, and Tasmania the cheapest at $96.24/MWh. The $38/MWh spread from top to bottom is modest and reflects orderly overnight conditions rather than any supply stress. Total NEM-wide demand sits at approximately 22,856 MW across the five regions, with NSW the dominant load centre at 8,118 MW. Western Australia is well below the pack at $40.86/MWh, consistent with its isolated grid and lower overnight demand.

Renewable penetration is low at 17.3% NEM-wide, as expected overnight with solar contributing zero across all regions. The standout is SA, which is 70.6% renewable on the back of 558 MW of wind generation meeting most of its 1,524 MW load, driving a carbon intensity of just 0.14 tCO2/MWh — the cleanest grid on the east coast by a significant margin. Tasmania is running at 100% renewable (313 MW hydro, 111 MW wind) and carbon-free, though the Basslink interconnector (T-V-MNSP1) is showing zero flow, meaning that clean energy is staying local. NSW is the carbon laggard at 0.81 tCO2/MWh with black coal supplying 6,255 MW — over 90% of in-state generation. QLD is similarly coal-heavy at 0.86 tCO2/MWh with 2,957 MW of black coal and renewables at just 2.8%.

The key interconnector story this morning is VIC1-NSW1 flowing 567 MW north into NSW, supporting that state's supply at a period of low renewable output. The Murraylink (V-SA) is exporting 274 MW from SA into Victoria, likely carrying some of SA's wind surplus south. The N-Q-MNSP1 DirectLink interconnector is binding at its export limit of -40.1 MW, a minor constraint between NSW and QLD. Grid stress sits at a score of 70, which warrants monitoring — the market has seen a significant run of price review intervals overnight, with AEMO flagging potential manifestly incorrect inputs across multiple consecutive dispatch intervals from around 00:30–03:55 AEST, though confirmed intervals have come back unchanged.

The active contingency notice to watch is the reclassification of the Kamerunga–Barron Gorge 132kV dual-circuit lines in QLD as a credible contingency event due to lightning activity, effective from 06:11 AEST this morning and still active. This affects the far north Queensland transmission network near Cairns. No constraint sets have been invoked as yet, but traders with exposure to north QLD generation or load should monitor for any binding impact. With overcast conditions across most regions (97% cloud cover in NSW, 80% in QLD) and negligible wind potential in the major load centres, the morning solar ramp will be muted — expect prices to stay firm through the early peak with little renewable relief until conditions improve.