commodity demand sa — SA1

South Australia's spot price sits at $87.69/MWh with demand at 1,541 MW as of 06:35 AEST — well below the morning peak of 1,765 MW reached around 19:20 AEST, when prices were sustaining $113–$114/MWh. The relationship between demand and price has been consistent across today's session: the $100–$125/MWh band tracks closely with demand in the 1,650–1,770 MW range, while the current softer demand level — down roughly 225 MW from that peak — has pulled price back below $90/MWh. Wind is carrying 459 MW and CCGT 257 MW, with renewables at 64% of the mix and carbon intensity at 0.176 tCO2/MWh, keeping the marginal cost stack relatively benign at this demand level.

The overnight period showed sharp price volatility disconnected from demand alone — a $370/MWh spike at 09:40 AEST occurred with demand at only 1,469 MW, pointing to supply-side tightness or interconnector constraints rather than demand pressure. That episode, along with a $215/MWh print at 09:15 AEST, triggered a wave of AEMO price review notices across the 09:00–09:55 AEST window, with several intervals confirmed unchanged under Manifestly Incorrect Inputs review. Traders should note those prices stand and are not being revised.

Looking forward, demand is currently in a gradual overnight trough phase. Based on today's observed demand-price relationship, the next meaningful price lift will come as demand climbs back through the 1,500–1,550 MW range during the morning ramp from around 07:00–09:00 AEST, with prices likely returning to the $100–$115/MWh band. The load window data flags the 08:30–09:00 AEST period (22:30–23:00 UTC) as an excellent opportunity for flexible demand with forecast prices as low as $10.87/MWh, consistent with the soft overnight demand trough. Afternoon business-hours demand has been anchoring steadily in the 1,350–1,470 MW range at $90–$107/MWh — expect a similar profile today absent any wind generation swing.