commodity demand qld — QLD1

Queensland spot price sits at $108.62/MWh with demand at 6,754 MW — well down from the morning peak of 8,686 MW reached around 6:40 AEST, but climbing steadily through the evening ramp. The demand trajectory tells the pricing story today: from a trough near 4,680 MW in the early hours (where prices repeatedly printed negative or near-zero, bottoming at -$3.99/MWh), demand has tracked sharply higher through the business day, sustaining prices above $100/MWh for most of the period between 6:00 AEST and now. The morning peak period between 17:00–19:00 AEST (settlement time) saw prices hold firmly in the $120–$131/MWh band as demand pushed above 8,600 MW, with a brief spike to $231.73/MWh at 19:10 AEST pointing to tight supply margins at the demand apex.

The evening ramp is now the dominant demand driver. Demand has risen from around 5,900 MW at 15:00 AEST to 6,754 MW currently, with the 20:15 AEST interval recording $138.97/MWh on 6,678 MW — the highest price of the evening ramp so far. The current easing to $108.62/MWh suggests the ramp is flattening, but the pattern from the price history is clear: each 500–700 MW increment in demand through the 6,000–7,000 MW range reliably shifts Queensland prices into the $100–$130/MWh corridor. Forecasts for the 07:00 AEST target interval point to $102.75–$103.83/MWh, consistent with demand stabilising in the mid-6,000 MW range as the post-dinner load eases.

One network factor worth noting: AEMO has reclassified the Kamerunga–Barron Gorge 132kV double-circuit as a credible contingency event due to lightning activity, effective from 06:11 AEST today and still active. No constraint sets are currently invoked, so the direct price impact is limited at this stage, but the reclassification tightens the security envelope for north Queensland and reduces dispatch flexibility in that corridor should demand push higher or generation patterns shift. Traders should monitor for constraint activation if the evening demand profile extends beyond current forecasts. Load-shifting opportunities are substantial in the overnight window, where forecast prices drop to $10–$33/MWh from 08:30 AEST (tomorrow) through the early morning, representing savings of $70–$120/MWh against current spot levels.