Carbon Forecast

The NEM's carbon intensity picture is sharply split this morning. Tasmania sits at 0 tCO2/MWh with 100% renewable generation from hydro and wind — it has been at zero all day. South Australia is the next cleanest at 0.18 tCO2/MWh with 64% renewable penetration, driven almost entirely by 459 MW of wind; SA's intensity has been tracking below 0.20 tCO2/MWh through the late evening period and is the standout low-carbon region on the mainland. At the other end, Victoria is the dirtiest region at 0.94 tCO2/MWh — 1,599 MW of brown coal forms the baseload spine, with only 361 MW of wind and negligible solar providing 20% renewable cover. Queensland is nearly as heavy at 0.85 tCO2/MWh, with 3,013 MW of black coal and just 3% renewable penetration; solar is essentially absent at 6 MW, confirming these are post-sunset readings. NSW sits at 0.80 tCO2/MWh with 6,308 MW of black coal dominating and only 9% renewables from a combined 114 MW of wind and solar plus 532 MW of hydro.

The generation mix making these numbers is straightforward: three of five regions are coal-heavy after dark, with no solar active and wind performing adequately only in SA and Victoria. The overnight trend in NSW has been flat, ranging 0.78–0.83 tCO2/MWh all night with no meaningful green compression. Victoria's intensity has been persistently elevated since around 13:00 AEST, when brown coal dominance reasserted after a mid-morning dip to 0.73 tCO2/MWh. SA has been the most volatile — swinging from 0.50 tCO2/MWh in the early evening down to 0.14 tCO2/MWh at its cleanest — driven by intermittent wind strength.

For today's outlook, solar generation will begin lifting across NSW, QLD, SA, and VIC from approximately 07:00–08:00 AEST, creating the primary green window between roughly 09:00 and 15:00 AEST. Based on today's pattern, NSW intensity is likely to ease toward 0.75–0.76 tCO2/MWh during peak solar hours, while SA could approach or breach 0.30 tCO2/MWh if wind holds alongside solar. Queensland's solar record across today shows a near-total washout — renewable penetration barely reached 3% even in peak daylight hours — so QLD should not be relied upon for a meaningful carbon reduction window unless wind dispatch improves. VIC's brown coal inflexibility means its intensity improvement through the solar window will be limited; expect 0.73–0.77 tCO2/MWh at best around midday.

For carbon-sensitive load scheduling: TAS is always the right answer if interconnector capacity is accessible. On the mainland, target SA between 18:00 and 21:00 AEST tonight when wind-dominant evenings have consistently produced intensity below 0.18 tCO2/MWh. For NSW and VIC, schedule flexible loads into the 10:00–14:00 AEST solar window. Avoid QLD for emissions-sensitive operations for the entire day — its coal-locked