regional vic — VIC1
Victoria's spot price sits at $114.69/MWh with total demand at 5,676 MW as of 06:30 AEST. That price is elevated but representative of the morning ramp — the 24-hour profile shows prices collapsed to near zero during the overnight trough (touching $0/MWh around 10:10–10:50 AEST overnight) before climbing sharply through the early morning peak, where intervals regularly printed above $130/MWh between 17:00 and 19:30 AEST. The current $114.69/MWh sits at the tail of that morning peak as demand edges higher toward 5,676 MW from a prior overnight low of around 4,650 MW.
The generation mix is heavily weighted toward brown coal, which is contributing 1,645 MW — the dominant baseload source and the principal driver of Victoria's persistently high carbon intensity. Wind is generating 529 MW, with hydro adding a modest 42 MW. Gas OCGT is dispatched at 98 MW to support the morning peak. Solar is contributing 0 MW, consistent with pre-dawn conditions, and gas CCGT sits offline. Renewables are contributing 24.7% of generation at present, down sharply from the overnight high of 41.3% when brown coal's share was relatively lower against suppressed demand. Carbon intensity sits at 0.8945 tCO2/MWh — well above the NEM average and reflective of brown coal's dominance. The morning peak saw intensity spike above 1.00 tCO2/MWh between 15:30 and 16:30 AEST.
The latest predispatch forecast points to a step-up from current levels: the 07:00 AEST forecast run prices the 21:00 AEST interval at $131.44/MWh, revised up from the earlier 05:30 AEST run which had that same interval at $109.58/MWh. That upward revision across successive predispatch runs signals tightening supply conditions as the morning progresses and demand builds toward the daytime peak. Flexibility holders and battery operators should note the load shift opportunity identified for the 08:00–09:30 AEST window (UTC 22:00–22:30), where forecast prices drop to the $3–$42/MWh range — representing savings of $95–$135/MWh against current spot.
A significant volume of active AEMO market notices is in force today, with prices subject to review under NER Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs) across a continuous run of intervals from 03:00 AEST through to 16:30 AEST. Two intervals — 02:30 AEST and 04:25 AEST — have been reviewed and confirmed unchanged. The scale of this review activity, covering more than 25 consecutive trading intervals, is operationally material: settlement prices for a large portion of today's trading day remain provisional. Traders with exposure to these intervals should monitor for any retrospective price adjustments. No specific affected regions are cited in the notices, but given the VIC1 context and the volume issued, Victorian participants should treat today's settlement figures for those intervals as unconfirmed until AEMO finalises its review.