regional tas — TAS1

Tasmania's spot price sits at $100.72/MWh with total demand at 1,041.71 MW — a notable step up from the $88.18–$88.27/MWh range that dominated the early portion of the overnight session, with the price escalation beginning around 0810 AEST and settling into a band of $96–$107/MWh through the morning and afternoon before lifting again into the evening ramp. The 24-hour price range has been volatile, with intraday spikes reaching $157.52/MWh at 2035 AEST and $141.57/MWh in the early hours, driven by short-duration dispatch events rather than sustained demand pressure.

The generation mix is running entirely renewable at this interval: hydro is contributing 384.02 MW and wind 13.43 MW, with gas OCGT at zero output. Carbon intensity sits at 0 tCO2/MWh and renewable penetration is 100%, a position Tasmania has held consistently across every recorded interval in today's data. The grid's self-sufficiency profile remains intact, with Basslink flows not directly visible in the generation data but implied by the gap between local generation (~397 MW) and total demand (~1,042 MW) — the balance is being met via interconnector imports from Victoria, which carries emissions implications that are not reflected in the local intensity figure.

The most recent predispatch forecast, issued at 0701 AEST, prices the next trading interval at $104.40/MWh, a modest lift from the current $100.72/MWh. Earlier pre-dispatch runs from the 1331–1401 AEST window had flagged $124.02/MWh and one outlier run at 1332 AEST reached $203.17/MWh before being revised sharply lower — consistent with AEMO's active review activity throughout the day. Traders should treat the $104.40/MWh near-term forecast as the operative figure but note the residual upside uncertainty given intervening dispatch volatility.

Market notices are the dominant risk flag today: AEMO has issued a sustained sequence of "Prices Subject to Review" notices under NER Clause 3.9.2B for manifestly incorrect inputs, covering intervals from 0300 AEST through to 0630 AEST — more than 30 consecutive intervals under active review, all still marked as active with no revised prices confirmed beyond the 0425 AEST interval (confirmed unchanged at 0250 AEST). Participants with exposure to those early-morning intervals should treat settled prices as provisional. The volume of review notices across a two-hour-plus block is unusual and warrants close monitoring for any retrospective repricing that could affect settlement positions.