regional sa — SA1
The SA spot price sits at $129.04/MWh with total demand at 1,652.69 MW as of 06:30 AEST. That's a meaningful step down from the afternoon and early evening peak, where prices repeatedly pushed into the $230–$497/MWh range between 14:00 and 20:00 AEST, with a single spike to $497.50/MWh at 18:55. The 24-hour price profile has been characterised by sustained elevation — the region has traded above $130/MWh for the bulk of the business day and into the evening, with gas-heavy dispatch driving costs throughout.
The current generation mix is dominated by gas, with CCGT contributing 454.31 MW and OCGT adding 132.05 MW — together accounting for roughly 81% of metered local output. Wind is generating 134.35 MW and solar is at zero, consistent with pre-dawn conditions. Renewable penetration sits at just 18.64%, a sharp contrast to the overnight period where wind drove renewables above 60% and carbon intensity dropped as low as 0.167 tCO2/MWh around 02:30 AEST. The current carbon intensity reads 0.428 tCO2/MWh, reflecting near-full gas dominance. Sustainability managers should note that the grid stress score is elevated at 64.1 out of 100, with market conditions scoring a weak 27.8, signalling ongoing tightness.
The forward price outlook offers no relief in the near term. Predispatch forecasts price the 07:00 AEST half-hour at $177.77/MWh, with subsequent intervals ranging between $170.44 and $203.99/MWh across the 07:30 and 08:00 windows. This is a consistent step-up from the current price, driven by the morning demand ramp — demand climbed to a daily peak of 2,129 MW around 08:30–09:00 AEST and is likely to push back toward that level as commercial and industrial loads come online. Wind speed is currently just 3.3 km/h with 80% cloud cover and zero solar potential, meaning there is no meaningful renewable relief expected through the morning period to ease gas-fired marginal pricing.
Traders and load managers should flag a significant and ongoing AEMO market notice issue: AEMO is actively reviewing prices for a continuous sequence of intervals spanning 03:00 through 06:30 AEST today under NER Clause 3.9.2B for Manifestly Incorrect Inputs. Two earlier intervals — 02:30 and 04:25 AEST — have been reviewed and confirmed unchanged, but the bulk of the early-morning price series from approximately 03:00 onwards remains subject to review. Settlement exposure on positions covering those intervals is not yet final. Counterparties with short positions or load curtailment settlements tied to those periods should hold off on finalising cost reconciliations until AEMO completes its review and issues confirmation notices.