regional qld — QLD1
Queensland's spot price sits at $92.59/MWh with total demand at 6,587 MW as of 06:30 AEST. That is a material step down from the morning peak, which ran hard between 18:00 and 19:15 AEST with prices sustaining above $140/MWh and demand cresting at 8,345 MW. The 24-hour price profile shows a classic mid-autumn shape: near-zero prices through the early hours (touching $0.02/MWh at 07:55 AEST), a sharp morning ramp from around 17:00 AEST driving prices above $116/MWh by 17:00 AEST, and a gradual softening through the afternoon and early evening back toward the low $90s.
The generation mix is overwhelmingly coal-dependent. Black coal is carrying 2,969 MW — approximately 96% of metered generation at the most recent interval — with hydro contributing 87 MW and solar a negligible 8 MW. Gas OCGT output is effectively zero at 0.16 MW. Renewable penetration sits at just 3.07%, down sharply from overnight highs of around 20% when wind and hydro were carrying more of the load. Carbon intensity is 0.8529 tCO2/MWh, one of the highest readings in the 24-hour window and consistent with the current coal-heavy dispatch stack. The grid stress score of 64.1 reflects a system still working relatively hard despite prices easing from the peak.
Predispatch forecasts point to continued softening, with the most recent run (06:01 AEST) targeting $86.73/MWh for the 07:00 AEST interval, down from earlier in-day forecasts for that same interval which were tracking above $117/MWh. The forecast revision trajectory — from $117.73/MWh at 12:32 AEST through to $86.73/MWh by 06:01 AEST — signals that the market is pricing in demand falling away as the morning commercial load eases. Load shifting opportunities are rated excellent from 08:00 AEST onward, with modelled prices dropping to the low single digits and below $10/MWh through the overnight window.
Traders and settlement managers should note a significant volume of active AEMO market notices. AEMO has flagged prices subject to review under NER Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs) across a continuous block of intervals from 03:00 AEST through to 06:30 AEST today — covering more than three hours of the morning ramp. One interval (04:25 AEST) has already been confirmed with prices unchanged, but the remaining intervals covering the $79–$81/MWh morning shoulder period remain under active review. Any price revision across that block would affect settlement for participants with material exposure in Queensland during that window. Monitor AEMO market notice board closely for confirmation or revision outcomes.