regional nsw — NSW1

The NSW spot price sits at $119.69/MWh against a total demand of 8,227 MW, up sharply from the overnight trough of under $10/MWh reached across several intervals around 0130–0200 AEST. The 24-hour price arc tells a clear story: deep discounts through the early hours gave way to a sustained morning peak cluster of $130–$145/MWh between 1700 and 1900 AEST, before softening slightly into the current interval. That morning peak represents a premium of roughly $110/MWh over the cheapest overnight windows, underscoring the scale of the diurnal spread available to flexible loads today.

The generation mix is heavily coal-dominated. Black coal is producing 6,275 MW — accounting for approximately 92% of tracked dispatchable output — with hydro contributing 366 MW and wind a modest 85 MW. Solar is generating zero output, consistent with post-sunset conditions. Renewable penetration sits at just 6.71% and carbon intensity is 0.8209 tCO2/MWh, both figures consistent with a grid running almost entirely on thermal baseload. The carbon history shows intensity peaked at 0.8661 tCO2/MWh around 0100 AEST when overnight renewables were at their weakest, improving to a daily low near 0.7185 tCO2/MWh at 0930 AEST as solar reached its midday contribution before fading through the afternoon.

Predispatch forecasts point firmly upward. The most recent AEMO predispatch run places the 0700 AEST interval at $134.89/MWh, consistent across multiple forecast runs issued through the evening. Earlier runs this morning ranged from $104.89 to $134.07/MWh for the same target interval, with the upward revision in the most recent run signalling tightening conditions through the breakfast demand ramp. Grid stress scores at 64.1 and market conditions at 27.8 reinforce an elevated-risk morning environment.

Market notices are a significant flag today. AEMO has issued an extensive sequence of active "PRICES SUBJECT TO REVIEW" notices under NER Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs) covering intervals from 0300 through to 0630 AEST — more than 30 consecutive intervals under review. Two earlier intervals (0230 and 0425 AEST) have been confirmed unchanged following review. The scale and persistence of the review sequence across the entire pre-dawn and early morning period is atypical and warrants close attention; any retrospective price corrections to those intervals could affect settlement positions for participants with exposure across that window. Traders holding positions in NSW for this morning's intervals should verify final settlement prices as AEMO works through the review queue.