NEM Overview

South Australia is the most expensive region on the NEM right now at $129.04/MWh, with NSW close behind at $119.69/MWh and Victoria at $114.69/MWh. Queensland is the clear outlier at $92.59/MWh, benefiting from ample black coal dispatch at 2,923 MW against relatively modest demand of 6,588 MW. Tasmania sits at $100.72/MWh, entirely hydro and wind-powered and carrying a carbon intensity of 0.00 tCO2/MWh. The $36.45/MWh spread between SA and QLD is notable and reflects SA's heavy reliance on gas — CCGT is contributing 457 MW and OCGT a further 157 MW against a total demand of just 1,653 MW, with wind delivering only 101 MW.

NEM-wide renewable penetration sits at just 16.8%, consistent with a post-sunset overnight profile — solar is contributing zero across every region. Wind is the sole variable renewable online: Victoria leads with 529 MW, NSW adds 85 MW, SA 101 MW, and Tasmania 15 MW. Carbon intensity is elevated across the eastern mainland, with Victoria the dirtiest at 0.89 tCO2/MWh driven by 1,645 MW of brown coal, NSW at 0.82 tCO2/MWh on the back of 6,275 MW of black coal, and QLD at 0.85 tCO2/MWh. Grid stress is scoring 64.1 out of 100, and the NSW-QLD interconnector is binding at its import limit of -739.9 MW, with power flowing north into QLD — an unusual direction that points to QLD's lower price pulling supply across the border.

AEMO has issued an extensive run of active "Prices Subject to Review" notices under NER Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs), covering every dispatch interval from 03:00 through to 06:30 AEST this morning. That is more than 35 consecutive intervals under review, which is a significant and prolonged data integrity event. Two earlier intervals — 02:30 and 04:25 — have been reviewed and confirmed unchanged, but the bulk of the morning's early trading window remains unresolved. Traders should treat any settled positions in those intervals with caution until AEMO finalises its review.

The morning demand ramp is approaching with temperatures mild across all regions — Sydney at 16.3°C, Melbourne 17.3°C — so heating load is modest and no major demand spike is expected at the peak. Solar will begin to contribute from around 06:30 AEST onwards, which should ease SA and VIC prices as the morning progresses, provided cloud cover (80% in SA, 71% in VIC) does not significantly suppress output. Watch the NSW-QLD interconnector binding constraint and the outstanding AEMO price reviews as the two primary risk factors for the morning session.