commodity demand tas — TAS1
Tasmania's spot price sits at $100.72/MWh with demand at 1,041.71 MW, marking a clear evening demand ramp that has lifted prices from the day's trough. The demand trajectory through the day tells the full story: demand peaked around 1,121 MW in the 7:30 AEST morning period where prices held in the $96–$107/MWh band, then shed around 300 MW through the midday trough — bottoming below 800 MW between 14:00 and 17:30 AEST — before climbing steadily back through the evening as residential heating load builds on a 12.9°C day with a heating demand index of 5.1.
The price-demand relationship in TAS1 today is notably compressed. Demand swung more than 320 MW across the day yet prices remained anchored in a narrow $88–$107/MWh corridor for the bulk of intervals, reflecting hydro's flat dispatch curve and Basslink's role in absorbing intraday imbalance. The notable exception was a brief $157.52/MWh spike at 10:35 AEST when demand was only 1,015 MW — well below the morning peak — indicating a dispatch-side constraint rather than a demand-driven event. Gas OCGT generation sits at 0 MW, confirming hydro (384 MW) is carrying the region's local output with Basslink making up the remainder of the 1,041 MW load.
The most recent AEMO forecast prices the next interval at $104.40/MWh, a modest step up from current spot, consistent with demand continuing to build through the early evening ramp. That forecast has been stable across multiple run times in the past hour. The load window data also points to overnight softening, with forecast prices at the 07:30 AEST and 08:00 AEST windows dipping to $88–$92/MWh as demand eases after the evening peak.
Traders should note that AEMO has issued an extensive series of "prices subject to review" market notices covering intervals from 04:00 through 06:30 AEST this morning under Clause 3.9.2B for manifestly incorrect inputs — one interval (02:30 AEST) has already been confirmed unchanged. Any retrospective price correction to those early morning intervals will not affect current dispatch but is worth tracking for settlement reconciliation. With 100% renewable generation and 0 tCO₂/MWh carbon intensity sustained across the entire observable period, TAS1 remains the cleanest region in the NEM irrespective of where spot settles tonight.