commodity demand sa — SA1

$129.04/MWh with demand at 1,652 MW — South Australia is in a relative lull following a volatile session that saw prices spike to $497.50/MWh at 06:55 AEST and sustain elevated levels through the afternoon and evening peak. The current price represents meaningful softening from those extremes, tracking demand's retreat from the intraday peak of approximately 2,130 MW reached during the 18:30–19:00 AEST business-hours window, when gas CCGT at 454 MW and OCGT at 132 MW are carrying the bulk of the load with wind contributing just 134 MW and solar offline.

The day's demand trajectory tells a clear story of price sensitivity. From an overnight trough near 950 MW — where prices briefly touched zero and negative territory — demand climbed sharply through the pre-dawn ramp, with each 100 MW step up in load translating to $10–30/MWh price increments. The steepest price response came during the afternoon shoulder period (from around 22:00–00:00 UTC / 08:00–10:00 AEST), when demand held above 2,000 MW and prices locked in a persistent band of $150–160/MWh, repeatedly clearing at the $160.13/MWh marginal unit. The mid-afternoon period then produced the most extreme outcomes: at 1,400–1,600 MW demand levels, prices were spiking to $279–$497/MWh, suggesting constrained interconnector conditions or strategic generator offer stack behaviour rather than demand volume alone driving those outcomes.

AEMO has issued a substantial run of "Prices Subject to Review" notices under Clause 3.9.2B for this morning's intervals from 05:00 through 06:30 AEST, citing Manifestly Incorrect Inputs. Those early-morning intervals already recorded prices of $121–$227/MWh against demand of only 1,080–1,290 MW — a clear price-demand dislocation that AEMO is actively investigating. One prior review (02:30 AEST interval) was confirmed unchanged. Traders holding positions in those intervals should treat settled prices as provisional until AEMO concludes its review.

The near-term forecast sits at $177.77/MWh for the 07:00 AEST half-hour, consistent with demand rising from its current 1,652 MW as the Wednesday morning ramp builds. With renewables at only 18.64% penetration and grid stress scored at 64.1, the dispatch stack is heavily gas-reliant; any further wind underperformance or interconnector tightening as demand climbs toward the 1,800–2,000 MW range typical of a mid-week morning peak carries a credible upside price risk into the $200–$280/MWh range seen during equivalent demand levels this morning.