commodity demand qld — QLD1

Queensland spot price sits at $92.59/MWh with demand at 6,588 MW, well off today's intraday peak of 8,345 MW reached around 6:35 AEST. The price-demand relationship today has been textbook: as demand climbed from overnight lows near 5,200 MW through the morning ramp, prices followed step-by-step from near-zero to a sustained $120–$150/MWh band between 7:00 and 9:30 AEST, touching $149.97/MWh at the 9:15 interval. The subsequent demand retreat — now down roughly 1,760 MW from that peak — has pulled prices back in proportion, with the $90–$96/MWh range holding through the evening shoulder.

The latest forecast pegs the next settlement interval at $86.73/MWh, revised down from the $95.73/MWh forecast issued at 5:31 AEST, signalling the market is pricing in continued demand softening as the evening progresses. Overnight load windows are forecast well below $40/MWh from 8:00 AEST (08:00 UTC), consistent with the pattern seen on the overnight trough where demand fell below 5,200 MW and prices collapsed to near zero. The morning demand ramp from roughly 5,400 MW to 8,300 MW in under three hours is the critical price lever to watch again tomorrow — early forecasts placed the 7:00 AEST peak price at $117–$118/MWh, and today's outturn exceeded that, suggesting the market is tight during that ramp window.

Note that AEMO has issued a sustained series of "Prices Subject to Review" notices under NER Clause 3.9.2B covering intervals from 3:00 AEST through to 6:30 AEST this morning, citing manifestly incorrect inputs. One earlier review interval (4:25 AEST) was confirmed unchanged. These reviews span the entire pre-dawn and morning ramp period — traders with positions in that window should treat those prices as provisional until AEMO completes its assessment, as revisions could materially alter the shape of today's settled price curve.