commodity demand nsw — NSW1

NSW spot sits at $119.69/MWh with total demand at 8,227 MW as of 07:30 AEST. That price level reflects a demand profile that has climbed sharply through the morning — from a trough near 5,975 MW in the early hours to the current level, tracking closely with price. The relationship is direct and consistent: every sustained lift above 8,000 MW has pushed prices into the $100–$145/MWh band, while the overnight demand floor below 6,500 MW saw spot collapse to single digits and low teens. Today's pattern is replicating that same sensitivity curve.

The morning peak delivered the day's sharpest price action, with demand touching 9,502 MW around 06:35 AEST and prices ranging $130–$145/MWh across that window. Demand has since eased to 8,227 MW and is on a typical mid-morning descent as commercial and industrial load partially offsets the drop in residential morning activity. The most recent AEMO forecast pegs the next notable interval at $134.89/MWh, suggesting dispatchers are positioned for demand to firm again rather than continue falling — consistent with a Wednesday midday uptick before the afternoon solar-aided trough.

The late afternoon and evening trajectory are the key price risk today. Based on the price history, the evening demand rebuild — which has been tracking 7,600–8,150 MW in the 18:00–21:30 AEST window — consistently sustains prices in the $98–$134/MWh range. With renewables contributing just 6.56% of generation right now (42.6 MW wind, 0.6 MW solar) and black coal carrying 6,224 MW, there is no low-marginal-cost renewable buffer to suppress the evening ramp. Demand-side managers should note the afternoon window between approximately 14:00 and 17:00 AEST where demand historically drops below 7,000 MW and prices ease to $78–$90/MWh — the clearest flexible load opportunity before the evening peak reprices the market above $120/MWh.

AEMO has issued a substantial volume of "Prices Subject to Review" notices under NER Clause 3.9.2B covering intervals from 03:00 through to 06:30 AEST today, citing potentially manifestly incorrect inputs. Traders holding positions across those intervals should treat settled prices as provisional; one confirmed "Prices Unchanged" notice (04:25 interval) has come through, but the bulk of the early-morning review window remains open. This adds settlement uncertainty to any position spanning the pre-dawn period.