Carbon Forecast

Tasmania is the clear NEM standout at 0.00 tCO2/MWh with 100% renewable generation — hydro at 384 MW and wind at 13 MW covering the entire island load with zero fossil dispatch. South Australia is the mainland leader at 0.43 tCO2/MWh with 18.6% renewables, though that figure reflects wind (134 MW) and gas CCGT (454 MW) co-dispatching at this hour; SA's overnight data shows it reached below 0.17 tCO2/MWh when wind penetration climbed above 65%, and those conditions are not present right now. NSW sits at 0.82 tCO2/MWh with renewables contributing just 6.6% — black coal is carrying 6,224 MW, leaving wind and hydro as marginal contributors. Queensland is the dirtiest mainland region at 0.85 tCO2/MWh, with black coal at 2,969 MW and renewables at a negligible 3.1% — gas OCGT is effectively idle, meaning the coal fleet is doing all the heavy lifting. Victoria sits at 0.89 tCO2/MWh; brown coal (1,655 MW) dominates and wind (558 MW) at 25.5% renewable penetration is only partially offsetting it.

The intraday pattern visible in today's data is instructive. NSW intensity dipped to a daily low near 0.72 tCO2/MWh around 09:30 AEST when solar and wind pushed renewables to 16%, before climbing back as solar dropped away this evening. SA showed its best window in the early hours (02:30–04:30 AEST) when wind drove renewables above 55–65%, cutting intensity to 0.17–0.22 tCO2/MWh — that window has closed for today. Queensland showed no meaningful solar contribution during daylight hours today, with renewables stuck at 2.6–3.2% throughout the trading day, indicating either curtailment or constrained output from its solar fleet.

Looking ahead through the remainder of Wednesday, the NEM's green windows will be narrow. SA wind is recovering modestly this evening (intensity falling from 0.51 earlier in the afternoon to 0.43 tCO2/MWh now), and if overnight wind conditions hold, SA could dip below 0.25 tCO2/MWh again in the pre-dawn hours. NSW and QLD will not see meaningful intensity relief until solar ramps from approximately 06:30–07:00 AEST tomorrow morning. VIC is unlikely to improve materially while brown coal baseload sits near 1,650 MW; peak wind contribution may provide modest relief but intensity will remain above 0.80 tCO2/MWh through the evening.

For carbon-sensitive load scheduling: Tasmania is available for clean dispatch around the clock — route flexible loads there if interconnector capacity permits. SA offers the next best opportunity, with the overnight wind window (approximately 01:00–05:00 AEST) the likely low-carbon slot. NSW and QLD loads are best deferred to the 08:00–11:00 AEST solar shoulder tomorrow. Avoid scheduling discretionary loads in Victoria or Queensland during this evening's peak — both regions are at or near their daily emissions ceiling.