regional vic — VIC1

The Victoria spot price sits at $108.13/MWh with total demand at 5,533 MW, consistent with the evening demand ramp that has pushed prices above $100/MWh since around 7:00 AEST. The price trajectory across the day was pronounced: near-zero and negative prices dominated the overnight and midday solar window (touching -$6.46/MWh at 08:40 AEST), before a sharp climb through the morning peak above $140/MWh, a midday retreat to the $56–$80/MWh range, and a renewed evening escalation from roughly 04:30 AEST as demand climbed from ~4,200 MW toward the current 5,500 MW level. The most recent predispatch forecast puts the 07:00 AEST interval at $109.79/MWh, up from earlier model runs that had that interval in the low-$90s/MWh — the upward revision reflects a tightening supply stack as demand peaks.

The current generation mix is dominated by brown coal at 1,559 MW, with wind contributing 972 MW and gas OCGT dispatched at 101 MW. Solar generation is zero, consistent with overnight conditions and 100% cloud cover. Hydro output is negligible at 0.26 MW. Wind is carrying the renewable load tonight, but total renewable penetration sits at 37.49% — a meaningful improvement on the 9–11% recorded in the late overnight hours when brown coal dominated almost entirely. Carbon intensity is 0.7604 tCO2/MWh, down substantially from the overnight peak of 1.099 tCO2/MWh recorded around 09:30 AEST. The carbon intensity improvement through the morning and afternoon was driven by rising wind output; the partial reversal in the evening reflects demand growth outpacing the wind contribution.

AEMO has issued a significant volume of active market notices today, all under Clause 3.9.2B of the National Electricity Rules for Manifestly Incorrect Inputs. Prices for a continuous run of early-morning intervals from 02:10 through to 06:25 AEST remain subject to review, with only the 05:40 interval confirmed as unchanged. Traders should treat VIC1 prices across those intervals — which include several $40–$65/MWh prints during the morning ramp — as potentially subject to revision. These reviews do not currently carry region-specific impact designations, but the volume and concentration across the early morning suggests a systemic input issue rather than isolated events. Separately, multiple contingency reclassifications are active in TAS1 due to lightning activity affecting Tasmanian transmission lines; while not directly affecting VIC1 dispatch, constraint sets on the Basslink interconnector (T-V-MNSP1) have been invoked, which can affect Victorian import/export dynamics and influence local price formation at the margin.

Looking ahead through today, the morning peak has passed its highest prints. Without significant solar uplift — cloud cover is 100% and solar potential is zero — renewables will rely entirely on wind for the remainder of the overnight period. With wind potential rated at only 0.3 and demand continuing to sit above 5,500 MW, brown coal remains the marginal price-setter. Load optimisation windows are rated excellent from 08:00 AEST onward, with forecast prices in the $2–$37/MWh range through the midday trough, providing substantial flexibility value for industrial loads and battery storage operators ahead