regional tas — TAS1

The spot price in Tasmania sits at **$88.26/MWh** against total demand of 1,011.6 MW — a notable step down from the overnight peak of $184.94/MWh reached around 7:00 AEST this morning and well below the sustained $96–107/MWh band that dominated much of the prior 24 hours. Generation is entirely renewable: hydro is contributing 366 MW and wind 58 MW, with gas OCGT sitting at zero output. Renewable penetration is **100%** and carbon intensity registers **0 tCO2/MWh** — a clean slate that has held consistently across every recorded interval throughout the day.

Looking ahead, predispatch points to prices settling back toward the **$91–96/MWh** range for the 07:00 AEST half-hour, with later windows showing a modest softening toward $88/MWh before drifting back toward $96/MWh through the morning. The trajectory is broadly stable with no spike signals in the near-term predispatch stack — the earlier morning volatility, which saw prices briefly punch to $163–185/MWh around the 06:00–06:10 AEST period, appears to have cleared.

The market notice picture is the most significant operational consideration today. AEMO has issued **multiple active contingency reclassifications** across TAS1 due to lightning activity, covering the Farrell–Reece No.1 and No.2 220 kV lines (from 05:18 AEST, with constraint set F-T-FARE_N-2 invoked, affecting the Basslink T-V-MNSP1 interconnector), the Farrell–John Butters and Farrell–Rosebery–Newton–Queenstown lines (from 05:54 AEST), and the Burnie–Port Latta–Smithton 110 kV double circuit (reclassified again at 05:28 AEST following an earlier cancellation at 04:54 AEST). The Farrell–Reece reclassification is the most consequential — the F-T-FARE_N-2 constraint directly limits Basslink export capacity, which constrains Tasmania's ability to dispatch into Victoria and can influence local price formation. All three reclassifications remain active until further notice.

Separately, AEMO has flagged prices for a large number of intervals across today's early morning (approximately 02:00–06:25 AEST) as **subject to review under NER Clause 3.9.2B for Manifestly Incorrect Inputs**, with only the 03:10 AEST interval confirmed unchanged so far. Traders holding positions over those intervals should treat settled prices as provisional. Grid stress scores at 55 and price stability at 0 (reflecting the overnight volatility) reinforce that while conditions are currently calm, the network is carrying elevated contingency risk from the storm activity and multiple intervals remain subject to potential retrospective price revision.