regional sa — SA1
The SA1 spot price sits at $138/MWh with total demand at 1,634.89 MW as of 06:35 AEST. This is firmly in elevated territory — the 24-hour price trace shows a dramatic intraday arc, with the market clearing near zero or negative through the overnight window (23:00–13:00 UTC, roughly 09:00–23:00 AEST prior), spiking to a session high of $1,001/MWh at 01:20 AEST before settling into a persistent $138–$180/MWh band through the morning. The current $138/MWh level reflects gas-dominated despatch with minimal renewable support.
The generation mix at the latest interval (06:30 AEST) shows gas CCGT contributing 256.79 MW, gas OCGT 174 MW, and wind 188.04 MW, with solar at zero — consistent with pre-dawn conditions. Total visible generation sits around 619 MW against demand of 1,634.89 MW, indicating significant import flow from Victoria via Heywood. Renewables are contributing just 30.39% of supply according to the latest carbon interval, dominated entirely by wind with zero solar. Carbon intensity stands at 0.3861 tCO2/MWh — materially higher than the overnight trough of 0.0869 tCO2/MWh recorded around 09:30 AEST, when wind penetration reached above 80%. The scoring data reinforces this: renewable penetration scores 17.2/100 and grid stress sits at 55/100, reflecting heavy reliance on gas and interconnector imports during the morning ramp.
Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST half-hour point to $138.04/MWh, with the most recent forecast run confirming this level. Load window data signals a meaningful price softening from 08:00 AEST onward, with forecast prices dropping into the $16–$67/MWh range through the 08:00–09:00 AEST window as solar generation begins to ramp — an "excellent" quality load window for flexible consumers and battery charging strategies. The 07:30 AEST window forecasts around $77/MWh, and the 08:00–08:30 AEST slots show the sharpest relief, with some runs pointing to sub-$20/MWh.
Three active AEMO market notices flag prices under review for today's early morning intervals — 05:00 through 06:25 AEST — under NER Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs). The 05:40 AEST interval has been confirmed unchanged following review. These notices are consistent with the price volatility pattern visible in the history, where the 01:20 AEST interval cleared at $1,001/MWh. Traders should treat early-morning settled prices with caution pending final confirmation. No SA1-specific contingency reclassifications are active; the TAS1 lightning-related notices in the data do not directly constrain SA flows, though ongoing Tasmanian network stress warrants monitoring for any Heywood interconnector flow impacts.