regional qld — QLD1

Queensland's spot price sits at $95.82/MWh against a total demand of 6,635 MW as of 06:35 AEST. The price trajectory through today tells a clear story: overnight hours saw sustained negative or near-zero pricing from roughly 01:00–05:00 AEST as demand bottomed below 5,200 MW, before a sharp morning ramp drove prices above $100/MWh between 18:05–19:15 AEST (the intraday peak hitting $118.73/MWh at 18:40–18:45 AEST). Prices are now consolidating in the $95–$99/MWh band as the evening peak demand builds back toward 6,600 MW. The most recent predispatch forecast targets $92.46/MWh for the 07:00 AEST interval, suggesting modest softening ahead as demand eases from the overnight period.

The generation mix is heavily coal-dependent. Black coal is producing 2,921.91 MW — the dominant fuel by a significant margin — with hydro contributing 79.32 MW and solar a negligible 7.31 MW. Gas OCGT output sits at just 0.16 MW, essentially offline. Renewable penetration is 2.88%, consistent with the carbon history which shows renewables have been locked in the 2.4–3.1% range through the entire business day since around 08:00 AEST, a significant deterioration from the 17–21% renewable share recorded during the overnight low-demand window when hydro's relative contribution was higher. Grid carbon intensity sits at 0.8546 tCO2/MWh — one of the dirtiest profiles in the NEM today — and has been essentially flat at 0.854–0.859 tCO2/MWh since 08:00 AEST, reflecting coal's lock on the daytime dispatch stack.

AEMO has issued a high volume of active market notices this morning. Multiple consecutive intervals from 04:00 through 06:25 AEST are subject to Manifestly Incorrect Inputs review under NER clause 3.9.2B, covering intervals 04:00, 04:05, 04:10, 04:20, 04:25, 04:30, 04:35, 04:50, 05:00, 05:05, 05:10, 05:15, 05:25, 05:35, 05:40, 05:45, 05:50, 06:00, 06:10, 06:15, and 06:25. These reviews are active and unresolved — only the 05:40 interval has been confirmed unchanged. Traders with positions across the early morning window should note these prices remain subject to revision. The volume and concentration of review notices across the pre-dawn and early morning shoulder period is notable and warrants monitoring.

For load scheduling, the overnight window from 08:30 AEST onward (tonight) is signalling excellent shift potential, with forecast prices in the $6–$37/MWh range and load window quality rated excellent across the board. Flexibility assets and demand response participants should target the 08:30–11:00 AEST overnight window for maximum cost and emissions benefit, where negative pricing has been the overnight norm. The morning peak window of 17:00–19:30 AEST remains the highest-cost and highest-carbon exposure period, and the current $95+