regional nsw — NSW1

The NSW spot price sits at $105.79/MWh against a total demand of 8,215 MW, holding in a narrow band around $105–$106/MWh through the past hour as the evening ramp builds. Tracing back through the day, prices peaked at $154.63/MWh during the 19:35 AEST interval before easing; the overnight trough touched near zero between 11:30–11:45 AEST as overnight load dropped toward 6,700 MW. The current level represents a firm but not extreme evening price, consistent with post-sunset demand recovery across the state.

Black coal is carrying the overwhelming majority of dispatchable load at 5,933 MW, with wind contributing just 166 MW. Solar generation is zero — as expected at this hour — and hydro, gas CCGT, and gas OCGT are all offline or at negligible output. Renewable penetration sits at just 2.72%, down sharply from a daytime high of around 18% when rooftop and utility solar were active. Carbon intensity is consequently at its worst point of the day at 0.8561 tCO₂/MWh, up from a mid-morning low of approximately 0.718 tCO₂/MWh. Sustainability managers should note this is a high-emissions window; defer flexible loads where possible until overnight when grid stress eases.

Predispatch forecasts are tight and consistent, pointing to ~$105.70/MWh for the next interval, with no material deviation across successive forecast runs — AEMO's predispatch has been anchoring in the $94–$106/MWh range since early morning. Load shift windows calculated for the 08:00–09:00 AEST bracket show prices as low as $2.55–$9.37/MWh, representing savings of 96–103% against current levels. Grid stress is scoring 55/100 and market conditions a weak 28.8/100, reflecting coal-heavy, low-renewable, elevated-price conditions.

AEMO has issued a sustained series of active "Prices Subject to Review" notices under NER clause 3.9.2B covering intervals from 02:00 through 06:25 AEST today, with the 05:40 interval subsequently confirmed unchanged. These notices do not directly affect NSW1 pricing but indicate manifestly incorrect input scrutiny was applied across the early-morning period. Separately, three contingency reclassification notices are active for TAS1 transmission lines due to lightning activity — the Farrell–Reece 220 kV pairing remains reclassified as credible with constraint set F-T-FARE_N-2 invoked, which constrains the T-V-MNSP1 interconnector and may limit southward flows from NSW into Victoria. Traders with cross-regional exposure should monitor that constraint through the morning.