Load Advisor

The deepest load-shifting opportunity across the NEM today sits in NSW and VIC, where predispatch prices will fall to single digits — as low as $1.63/MWh in NSW and $0.01/MWh in VIC — during the 09:00–10:00 AEST window (23:00–00:00 UTC). These near-zero Victorian prices represent savings exceeding 109 $/MWh against the current spot of $108.13/MWh, making this the standout window NEM-wide. NSW follows closely, with prices forecast to trough between $1.63–$2.85/MWh through the 09:00–09:30 AEST period, a saving of over 103 $/MWh against the current $105.79/MWh spot. Queensland is also highly attractive from 08:30 AEST, with prices going negative (as low as –$4.91/MWh) through to approximately 09:30 AEST before recovering toward $1/MWh — operators who can absorb load during negative pricing intervals will effectively be paid to consume. The 08:00–08:30 AEST window in NSW and VIC (22:00–22:30 UTC) also offers good value at $9–$13/MWh, suitable for loads that cannot wait until the deeper trough.

SA is the outlier. Spot prices are currently $138/MWh and predispatch forecasts remain elevated at $110–$141/MWh through most of the forecast horizon, with only a brief dip to $16–$35/MWh around 08:00–08:30 AEST. That window offers savings of 140–160 $/MWh and is worth capturing for SA-based flexible loads, but the opportunity is narrow and prices return to triple digits quickly. Tasmania presents only modest shifting value, with predispatch tracking $75–$88/MWh through the morning — better than current spot of $96.20/MWh but not approaching the near-zero levels seen on the mainland.

The concrete recommendation: schedule all deferrable mainland loads — pumping, cold storage pre-cooling, EV charging, and industrial batch processes — to commence at 08:30 AEST and run through to 09:30 AEST. NSW and VIC operators should target the 09:00–09:30 AEST half-hour for maximum savings. Queensland operators should dispatch flexible load from 08:30 AEST to capture the negative-price window and hold through to 09:30 AEST. Avoid scheduling any new load in SA outside the brief 08:00–08:30 AEST window, and do not shift load into the 07:30–08:00 AEST period in any region, where prices are still tracking $37–$111/MWh depending on the market.