Interconnector Watch

Four of the NEM's six monitored interconnectors are binding right now, pointing to a tightly constrained grid at 07:05 AEST.

The most significant flow is on Heywood (V-SA): 554 MW is moving from Victoria into South Australia, and the interconnector is binding at its export limit. This fully explains SA's price premium — at $138/MWh, SA sits $32/MWh above Victoria ($105.88/MWh). SA is effectively import-dependent at this moment, and Heywood is the release valve running flat out. Murraylink (V-S-MNSP1) adds a further 81 MW from Victoria to SA, also binding at its 81 MW export ceiling, confirming there is no spare westward transmission capacity. On QNI (NSW1-QLD1), 517.54 MW is flowing north from NSW into Queensland and is binding at its import limit — Queensland's lower price of $95.82/MWh relative to NSW's $104.36/MWh reflects that QLD is receiving cheap supply and the interconnector is saturated in that direction, preventing further arbitrage. The Directlink (N-Q-MNSP1) carries 40.6 MW also northward into Queensland and is binding at both its import and export limits, reinforcing the north-to-Queensland flow picture.

The VIC-NSW interconnector is carrying 312.79 MW from Victoria into NSW but is not binding — there is headroom to roughly 603 MW on the import side, so this corridor retains some flexibility and the modest $1.52/MWh NSW-VIC spread reflects it. Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) sits at zero flow and is not binding; Tasmania at $88.26/MWh is the cheapest region on the board, but no energy is transiting to Victoria right now. That is directly linked to this morning's active constraint notice: AEMO reclassified the simultaneous trip of the Farrell–Reece No.1 and No.2 220 kV lines in Tasmania as a credible contingency event from 05:18 AEST due to lightning, invoking the F-T-FARE_N-2 constraint set on T-V-MNSP1. That constraint is suppressing Basslink export capability and stranding cheap Tasmanian generation, widening the TAS-VIC spread. Engineers and traders should watch this notice closely — if the contingency reclassification is lifted, Basslink flows and Tasmanian dispatch could shift materially.