commodity demand vic — VIC1

Victoria's spot price sits at $105.88/MWh with total demand at 5,642 MW, tracking the evening demand ramp that has pushed prices above the $100/MWh mark for the past several intervals. The demand trajectory today has been textbook: a morning peak reaching 6,602 MW around 6:05 AEST with prices spiking to $143.61/MWh, a pronounced midday trough driven by solar displacement that compressed prices into the $50–80/MWh range, and a classic late-evening rebuild now underway. The sensitivity is clear — each 500 MW step in demand corresponds to roughly $30–50/MWh of price movement through the day's data, with the sharpest price responses occurring on the upswing between 4,200 MW and 6,600 MW.

The overnight trough between midnight and 3:00 AEST saw demand drop to around 3,860 MW, with prices repeatedly touching zero or negative as brown coal baseload (currently running at 1,559 MW) and wind generation (973 MW) saturated a weakened load. As demand rebuilt through the morning, prices accelerated rapidly — the 06:55 AEST interval at $147.50/MWh on 6,516 MW demand represents today's observable price ceiling so far. AEMO has issued an extensive series of "Prices Subject to Review" notices covering intervals from approximately 02:00 through 06:30 AEST under NER clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs), meaning several of today's early morning and morning peak prices carry revision risk — confirmed prices from those windows should be treated with caution until AEMO finalises its review.

The afternoon solar window between 14:30 and 17:00 AEST produced a sharp demand compression to around 4,150–4,650 MW, with prices collapsing to near-zero as renewable penetration climbed above 36–39%. That window has now closed as solar output returns to zero (solar potential reads 0 with 100% cloud cover and 19.2°C), and demand is rebuilding toward the evening peak. The current 5,642 MW reading at $105.88/MWh is consistent with further upward price pressure as residential load consolidates; the AEMO pre-dispatch forecast for the 07:00 AEST interval (21:00 UTC) has been consistently pointing to $91–96/MWh across multiple runs, suggesting the dispatch algorithm sees the evening ramp moderating rather than accelerating, which aligns with low cooling demand at 19.2°C and no heat-driven load spike expected overnight.