commodity demand sa — SA1
South Australia's spot price sits at $138/MWh with demand at 1,635 MW as of 06:35 AEST, tracking a clear evening ramp that has lifted load by around 250 MW over the past 90 minutes. The demand-price relationship today is tight: the market is running almost entirely on gas — CCGT at 257 MW and OCGT at 174 MW — with wind contributing just 188 MW and solar zero, leaving renewables at only 30% of the mix. That gas-heavy dispatch stack means the marginal cost floor is elevated, and the $138/MWh price is effectively functioning as a soft ceiling set by peaking plant offer bands rather than genuine scarcity.
The price history through today shows how demand-sensitive this market is operating. When load peaked near 2,031 MW around 19:40 AEST this morning, spot prices reached $261/MWh. As demand eased back through the 1,800–1,900 MW range across the late morning, prices settled in the $138–$160/MWh band. The afternoon saw intermittent spikes to $301–$1,001/MWh between 00:10–01:20 AEST, concentrated in intervals where demand sat around 1,440–1,550 MW — a level that should not ordinarily cause such volatility, pointing to localised constraint or offer stack thinness rather than aggregate demand as the trigger. Note that AEMO has active price review notices for multiple early-morning intervals (04:00–06:30 AEST) under NER clause 3.9.2B for manifestly incorrect inputs; those prices may be revised.
The forward load window shows a material step-down approaching. Forecast prices drop to $110/MWh at 07:00 AEST and to $16–$77/MWh through the 08:00–09:00 AEST window as overnight demand falls toward its trough. That pattern is consistent with the prior-day trajectory, where demand collapsed from around 1,635 MW at this hour to below 900 MW by 12:30 AEST, driving prices negative through the early hours on excess wind generation. Flexible load operators and battery managers should note the 08:00–09:30 AEST window as the primary charging opportunity today, with forecast prices well below $30/MWh across several intervals.