regional vic — VIC1

The Victoria spot price sits at $124.24/MWh with total demand at 5,587 MW, up sharply from the overnight trough where prices ran negative — reaching as low as -$44.18/MWh around 06:30 AEST — before the morning ramp drove prices through $100/MWh from around 17:00 AEST and accelerating into the evening peak. The day's price arc is textbook: deep negatives during the pre-dawn renewable surplus, a hard climb through the morning peak touching $126.08/MWh, a mid-afternoon consolidation in the $73–$101/MWh range, and a renewed evening escalation now pushing above $124/MWh as demand climbs back toward 5,600 MW.

Brown coal dominates the current generation mix at 1,655 MW, with wind contributing just 175 MW and hydro at 81 MW. Solar output is zero — consistent with overnight timing and 100% cloud cover on the ground. Gas OCGT is providing a token 10 MW. Renewable penetration sits at 12.2% and falling, down from an overnight peak above 54% when wind was carrying more load and demand was at its lowest. Carbon intensity is 1.0685 tCO2/MWh at the latest read — elevated and trending higher through the day as brown coal displaces the wind that propped up the overnight mix. The day's intensity range tells the story clearly: 0.55 tCO2/MWh at 03:00 AEST versus 1.18 tCO2/MWh at 16:30 AEST, a spread of over 0.6 tCO2/MWh driven almost entirely by renewable displacement.

The most recent predispatch forecast pegs the 07:00 AEST interval at $134.91/MWh, up from the current $124.24/MWh — a further ~$10/MWh escalation as the evening peak deepens and demand continues to build. Earlier in the day, pre-dispatch had flagged this period at $153–$157/MWh before moderating; the current consensus has settled around $134–$135/MWh, suggesting the market sees some cap on upside but expects prices to remain firmly elevated through the peak window. Load window analysis shows relief emerging from 08:00 AEST onwards, with forecast prices pulling back to the $56–$65/MWh range, confirming the peak is expected to be contained to the next two to three hours.

AEMO has issued a series of active market notices under Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs) covering multiple early-morning intervals from approximately 02:10–06:25 AEST. Several of those reviews have since resolved with prices unchanged, but notices for the 04:00–06:25 AEST intervals remain active. These notices do not affect Victoria's current price directly but traders with settlement exposure to those intervals should monitor resolution. A contingency reclassification in QLD1 relating to lightning on transmission lines near Tully and Terranora was cancelled by 07:19 AEST, with no constraint sets invoked — no material VIC1 impact expected from that event.