regional sa — SA1

The SA1 spot price sits at $125.92/MWh with total demand at 1,510 MW as of 06:25 AEST. The overnight session tells the full story of South Australia's renewable-driven volatility: prices collapsed to a trough of -$95.07/MWh at around 12:50 AEST early morning as wind generation flooded a low-demand grid, before surging through the morning ramp to a session high of $180.81/MWh at 18:25 AEST. The current price is elevated but well within the morning peak band, which has tracked broadly between $110–$160/MWh since 17:30 AEST.

Wind is the dominant generator right now, contributing 502.61 MW against 179.19 MW from gas CCGT, with solar at zero given overnight conditions and OCGT offline. That places renewable penetration at 73.72% and carbon intensity at 0.1288 tCO2/MWh — a notably clean grid position reflecting strong wind output. Overnight, intensity peaked at 0.4625 tCO2/MWh during the 13:00–13:30 AEST window when wind dropped and gas carried a much higher share of a reduced load. The trajectory since then has been a marked improvement, with intensity declining steadily from 08:00 AEST onwards as wind recovered.

The most recent predispatch forecast targets $142.45/MWh for the 07:00 AEST trading interval, up from the current $125.92/MWh, signalling further upward price pressure as the Monday morning demand ramp builds. Earlier predispatch runs from overnight had targeted this interval as high as $176.42/MWh before revising down across successive runs to $129.99/MWh and then lifting again to $142.45/MWh in the latest pass. Load window data confirms the best buying opportunity shifts to the 09:00–09:30 AEST window where forecast prices drop to the $9–$11/MWh range, likely reflecting an anticipated surge in solar generation once the sun rises against a still wind-supported grid.

AEMO has issued a substantial volume of active market notices throughout the morning, all under Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs), covering intervals from 01:10 AEST through to 06:25 AEST. Several of those earlier intervals — including 04:10, 04:45, 05:05, and 05:30 AEST — have since been reviewed and confirmed unchanged. Intervals from 05:35 AEST through to 06:25 AEST remain under active review. The pattern of negative prices and deep off-peak volatility is consistent with the input data triggering automated screening. Traders should treat prices for those overnight intervals with caution until final confirmation is issued. No SA1-specific network constraints or reclassification events are active; the contingency reclassifications in the notice stream are QLD1-region events with no direct SA1 impact.