regional qld — QLD1

The Queensland spot price sits at $91.77/MWh against a demand of 6,589 MW as of 6:25 AEST this morning. That price is materially elevated relative to the overnight trough, where the market traded near zero and briefly went negative — as low as -$3.99/MWh — through the early hours as demand collapsed below 4,600 MW. The morning ramp has been steep: prices pushed through $50/MWh from around 2:40 AEST, accelerated through the $80–$90/MWh band by 6:00 AEST, and are now holding above $91/MWh as the working week commences and demand builds on a cool 19.7°C morning with no meaningful cooling load.

The generation mix is overwhelmingly coal-dominated. Black coal is carrying 3,100 MW of the load, with hydro contributing just 72 MW, solar a negligible 7 MW, and gas OCGT essentially offline at 0.16 MW. Renewable penetration sits at just 2.49% — one of the weakest readings in the dataset, reflecting the post-sunrise gap where rooftop solar has not yet ramped and large-scale solar is barely online. Carbon intensity is accordingly high at 0.8581 tCO2/MWh, essentially unchanged since around 8:00 AEST and tracking at the upper end of today's range. Through the overnight period, renewables reached as high as 23% penetration and intensity dipped to 0.68 tCO2/MWh — the contrast with current conditions is stark and driven entirely by coal dispatch into the morning peak.

The most recent predispatch forecast, issued at 6:01 AEST, targets $84.71/MWh for the 7:00 AEST trading interval — a modest step down from the current print, suggesting the market expects some price softening as demand stabilises before the midday solar shoulder. Earlier predispatch runs from overnight were forecasting this interval at $63–$75/MWh, indicating the morning ramp has exceeded earlier expectations. The load window data confirms a significant price relief period is anticipated from around 8:00 AEST (6:00 UTC) onwards, with forecast prices dropping to sub-$1/MWh through the solar window and briefly going negative around 9:00–9:30 AEST — creating a clear opportunity for flexible and interruptible loads to shift consumption into that window.

AEMO has been active with market notices throughout the morning. Two contingency reclassification events — one involving the Mudgeeraba–Terranora 110 kV lines and another involving the Ross–Tully South–Woree 275 kV and Cardwell–Tully 132 kV lines — were triggered by lightning activity in QLD1 and subsequently cancelled by 5:59 AEST, with no constraint sets invoked. However, AEMO has issued a series of "Prices Subject to Review" notices under NER Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs) covering intervals from approximately 3:45 AEST through to 6:25 AEST. Several of those earlier intervals — including 6:00 and 6:15 AEST — have now been confirmed unchanged. The 6:20 and 6:25 AEST intervals remain under active review; traders with settlement exposure to those intervals should treat those prices as provisional pending