regional nsw — NSW1

The NSW spot price sits at $130.60/MWh with total demand at 8,173 MW, marking the upper end of a sustained evening ramp that began around 6:00 AEST and has tracked above $100/MWh continuously since roughly 7:00 AEST. Prices peaked intraday at $133.99/MWh at 6:15 AEST before easing slightly, but the evening demand build is now pushing prices back toward that level. The contrast with the overnight trough — where multiple intervals printed below $1/MWh and one touched -$4.14/MWh — underscores the extreme intraday price spread NSW is delivering today, a spread exceeding $135/MWh across the trading day.

Black coal dominates the generation mix at 6,345 MW, accounting for roughly 86% of local output at the current dispatch interval. Hydro is providing meaningful support at 828 MW — likely reflecting economic dispatch into the evening peak. Wind and solar are contributing a combined 149 MW (60 MW and 89 MW respectively), which is negligible for this time of evening. Gas (both CCGT and OCGT) is sitting at zero dispatch. Carbon intensity currently reads 0.7672 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at just 12.82%, having pulled back from a daytime high of around 16% when solar was generating — a clear illustration of the duck curve dynamic as solar exits and coal holds the stack.

Predispatch forecasts point to further price escalation, with AEMO's most recent run (issued at 6:01 AEST) placing the 7:00 AEST interval at $137.73/MWh — up from the prior forecast of $121/MWh issued earlier this morning. That upward revision is material and signals tighter conditions heading into the late-evening demand window. Load-shifting opportunity emerges from 8:00 AEST onward, where forecast prices drop sharply into the $35–$57/MWh range, flagged as "good" to "excellent" windows by the dispatch optimiser.

AEMO has issued a series of active market notices under Clause 3.9.2B of the NER for Manifestly Incorrect Inputs, covering multiple early-morning intervals between 3:45 AEST and 6:25 AEST today. Two intervals — 6:20 AEST and 6:25 AEST — remain under active review with no confirmation yet issued, while earlier intervals at 6:00 AEST and 6:15 AEST have been confirmed unchanged. The reclassification contingency events in QLD1 (lightning-related line trips near Tully and Terranora) have since been cancelled, suggesting inter-regional flow risks have normalised. Traders holding positions over those unconfirmed NSW-adjacent intervals should monitor for potential price revision.