NEM Overview

Spot prices are elevated across the southern and eastern seaboard this morning, with NSW leading at $130.60/MWh, SA at $125.92/MWh, and VIC at $124.24/MWh. Tasmania sits at $106.80/MWh while Queensland is the clear outlier at $91.77/MWh — a $38.83/MWh discount to NSW that reflects Queensland's coal-heavy dispatch stack and the NSW-QLD1 interconnector binding at its import limit of -529.36 MW, effectively capping how much cheap Queensland energy can flow south. The N-Q-MNSP1 interconnector is also binding, adding further constraint to north-south flows.

NEM-wide renewable penetration sits at just 18.3%, reflecting the early-morning pre-dawn window with solar contributing nothing across all regions. The generation mix is dominated by black coal in NSW (6,345 MW) and Queensland (3,100 MW), and brown coal in Victoria (1,655 MW). SA is the renewable standout with wind generating 502.61 MW, covering 73.72% of local demand — the lowest carbon intensity on the mainland at 0.1288 tCO2/MWh. Victoria is the dirtiest region at 1.0544 tCO2/MWh, with wind contributing only 174.59 MW against a brown coal baseload running near capacity. Tasmania is fully renewable at 100%, dispatching 408.57 MW of hydro and 26.44 MW of wind with zero carbon intensity.

AEMO has issued a sustained run of "Prices Subject to Review" notices under NER Clause 3.9.2B covering intervals from approximately 02:40 through to 06:25 AEST this morning — an unusually long sequence that warrants attention. Earlier intervals at 01:20, 04:10, 04:45, 05:05, 05:30, and 06:15 have been reviewed and confirmed unchanged, but multiple intervals from 05:35 onwards remain active and unresolved. Two contingency reclassifications in QLD1 due to lightning activity — affecting the Ross–Tully South–Woree 275 kV line and the Mudgeeraba–Terranora 110 kV circuits — have both since been cancelled, with AEMO confirming lightning has cleared the area.

Weather conditions are mild across all regions with temperatures ranging from 14.8°C in Tasmania to 20.3°C in SA, and solar potential is currently zero everywhere. Demand is unlikely to spike through the morning peak on thermal grounds alone, but the binding interconnector constraints between QLD and NSW will keep the inter-regional price spread wide until dispatch conditions shift. Traders holding NSW or VIC positions should monitor resolution of the outstanding price review notices, as any retrospective adjustments to the 05:35–06:25 AEST intervals could affect settlement.