Interconnector Watch

Interconnector conditions at 06:35 AEST are characterised by two binding links and a clear south-to-north price gradient driving flow directions across the NEM. QNI (NSW1-QLD1) is fully bound at its import limit of -594 MW, meaning Queensland is pulling the maximum permissible volume from New South Wales. This constraint is directly reflected in the $48.75/MWh spread between NSW ($140.50/MWh) and QLD ($91.75/MWh) — Queensland's cheaper generation cannot flow north any further to compress that gap, and the binding limit is acting as a hard ceiling on arbitrage. Traders holding NSW exposure should note this constraint is suppressing the natural price-equalisation mechanism on QNI for the duration it holds.

N-Q-MNSP1 (Terranora/DirectLink) is also binding, with flow sitting at -33.5 MW against an export limit of -33.5 MW — fully utilised in the Queensland-to-NSW direction. This is a relatively small interconnector but its binding status reinforces that northward capacity out of NSW into QLD is genuinely constrained at both major NEM links on the Queensland border simultaneously.

On the southern links, Heywood (V-SA) is carrying 219 MW from Victoria into South Australia, sitting exactly at its import limit of 219 MW — effectively binding on the SA side, though not flagged as such in the constraint data. The $1.71/MWh VIC-SA spread is narrow, consistent with Heywood moving material volume and partially equalising prices between the two regions. Murraylink (V-S-MNSP1) is flat at zero flow, contributing nothing to the VIC-SA exchange. Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) is also at zero, leaving Tasmania price-isolated at $107.19/MWh — sitting between VIC ($131.70/MWh) and QLD, with no energy moving either direction despite the headroom in both directions (±125 MW). VIC-NSW (Terranora) is flowing 170 MW northward from Victoria to New South Wales, well within its 1,022 MW export limit, with ample unused capacity and no binding pressure on that link.

No constraint notices are active in the market at this time. The dominant market story is the dual binding of QNI and N-Q-MNSP1 locking in the NSW-QLD spread, and Heywood at its SA import ceiling — three of the NEM's six monitored interconnectors are at or near their limits, leaving limited scope for further inter-regional arbitrage in the current dispatch interval.