commodity demand vic — VIC1
Victoria's spot price sits at $131.70/MWh with demand at 5,673 MW, and the market is still climbing. The price trajectory tells the story clearly: demand has risen more than 1,300 MW since the early-morning trough around 6:30 AEST, when the region was running near 2,850 MW at deeply negative prices. The morning ramp was sharp — demand broke through 5,000 MW around 15:00 AEST and has accelerated into the evening peak, with prices tracking it in near-lockstep, moving from sub-$10/MWh at the overnight floor to the current $131.70/MWh as demand crossed 5,500 MW. That price-demand relationship confirms the grid is operating on the steeper portion of the supply stack, where each incremental 100 MW of demand is extracting a meaningful price premium.
The most recent AEMO forecast, issued at 06:01 AEST, prices the 07:00 AEST interval at $134.91/MWh — marginally above the current print — signalling the market expects demand to continue lifting in the near term. Earlier overnight forecasts had the same interval priced as high as $157/MWh, which moderated as the actual overnight demand profile came in softer than expected. With demand now at 5,673 MW and tracking toward what is typically Victoria's evening residential peak between 07:00 and 09:00 AEST, further upward price pressure is the base case. Brown coal is carrying 1,655 MW of the load with only 174.59 MW of wind and zero solar available at this hour, leaving thermal and interconnector capacity to manage the remaining gap.
Demand-side participants should note there are no active AEMO market notices imposing constraints specifically on Victoria's load, though a series of price-review notices for early morning intervals (03:00–06:30 AEST) remain active under Clause 3.9.2B for Manifestly Incorrect Inputs — most of those relate to the overnight negative-price period and are being progressively confirmed unchanged. The relevant signal for today's demand management is the forecast window from 08:00 AEST onward: load windows indicate prices drop sharply to the $37–$60/MWh range from 08:00 AEST and sub-$25/MWh from 09:00 AEST as overnight renewables return. Flexible loads with the ability to defer consumption by 60–90 minutes stand to capture a saving of $70–$110/MWh against current spot.