commodity demand tas — TAS1
Tasmania's spot price sits at $107.19/MWh with demand at 1,135 MW — the highest point in the dataset and up sharply from the overnight trough of around 820 MW recorded in the early hours of this morning. The demand-price relationship today has been textbook: prices held in the $60–$76/MWh range through the overnight low-demand period before climbing steadily above $96/MWh as demand broke through 900 MW around 3:00 AEST and accelerating further as the morning peak pushed demand above 1,100 MW from approximately 7:10 AEST onwards.
The morning ramp has been the dominant price driver. Demand climbed from roughly 885 MW at 10:25 AEST last night to the current 1,135 MW — a lift of 250 MW in under nine hours — and prices have followed in lockstep, moving from sub-$77/MWh to the current $107.19/MWh. A brief spike to $132.95/MWh at the 6:30 AEST interval stands out; AEMO has flagged those prices as subject to review under Clause 3.9.2B for manifestly incorrect inputs, so traders should treat that interval with caution pending confirmation.
Forward forecasts are anchored at $107.19/MWh for the 7:00 AEST trading window, with the most recent pre-dispatch run (20:01 UTC) holding that level steady across multiple scenarios. Earlier forecast runs this morning ranged between $96.24/MWh and $121.66/MWh for the same interval, indicating dispatch uncertainty during the morning ramp that has since resolved. Demand forecasts within the data return zero values, limiting visibility on the trajectory beyond the current interval, but the typical Monday pattern and current 1,135 MW level suggest demand is approaching or near the morning peak plateau before the mid-morning easing that was clearly visible when demand shed from 1,130 MW back toward 1,060 MW between roughly 7:45 and 10:00 AEST.
The price outlook for the remainder of the morning is stable-to-softening as demand eases off peak, with forecasts consolidating around $96–$107/MWh. Heating demand of 3.2 units and 100% cloud cover suppress any solar contribution, keeping Tasmania fully reliant on its 408 MW hydro and 26 MW wind currently dispatched — with gas OCGT sitting idle at zero. The 100% renewable generation profile means carbon intensity remains at 0 tCO2/MWh throughout, an advantage for sustainability-focused buyers regardless of the price level. Load-shifting opportunities exist in the afternoon trough where load window pricing dips toward $88/MWh around the 7:30–8:00 AEST windows.