commodity demand sa — SA1

South Australia's spot price sits at $129.99/MWh with demand at 1,536 MW, continuing an evening escalation that began when demand crossed 1,400 MW around 06:35 AEST and prices broke above $100/MWh. The demand-price relationship today has been sharply nonlinear: during the overnight trough demand fell below 200 MW and prices sustained negative territory as low as -$95.07/MWh, while the morning ramp from roughly 430 MW at 15:05 AEST to today's 1,536 MW has driven prices consistently into the $110–$180/MWh band, with a brief $180.81/MWh spike at 19:25 AEST when demand touched 1,611 MW at the morning peak.

The demand trajectory today shows a textbook Monday residential and commercial load shape. The session trough sat at approximately 155 MW around 13:45 AEST with prices at -$20/MWh, and the subsequent ramp has been steep and sustained. The morning peak band between 18:30–19:40 AEST saw demand peak at 1,674 MW with prices reaching $138–$180/MWh. Demand has since eased slightly from that peak but remains elevated at 1,536 MW and is tracking upward again per the latest interval, suggesting a possible secondary evening peak is developing.

The most recent forecast (issued 06:01 AEST) prices the 07:30 AEST interval at $142.45/MWh, a step up from the current $129.99/MWh, consistent with demand continuing to build into the morning commercial peak. Earlier forecasts issued overnight had that same interval as high as $176.42/MWh before being revised down as wind generation firmed — wind is currently producing 502.61 MW, supplying the majority of SA's 681 MW total scheduled generation and keeping carbon intensity at a low 0.1288 tCO2/MWh with renewables at 73.72%. Without that wind contribution, the price trajectory into the 07:30–09:00 AEST demand peak would be materially higher.

Note that AEMO has multiple active market notices flagging early-morning intervals from approximately 03:00–06:30 AEST as subject to review under NER clause 3.9.2B for manifestly incorrect inputs, with several intervals already confirmed unchanged. This review activity does not affect current or forward pricing but traders should be aware that some overnight interval prices carry residual review status. The demand and price outlook for the remainder of the morning centres on whether demand pushes above the 1,670 MW range seen at the session peak — if it does, prices at or above $160/MWh are likely given today's demonstrated sensitivity at that demand threshold.