commodity demand qld — QLD1

Queensland spot price sits at $91.75/MWh with total demand at 6,603 MW — a demand level that has proven consistently price-sensitive across today's dispatch intervals. The price-demand relationship is stark in the data: demand troughed around 4,516 MW in the early hours of this morning when prices fell to near zero or negative, while the morning peak of 7,968 MW at 6:30 AEST drove prices firmly into the $83–$93/MWh band. The current 6,603 MW reading puts the market in a zone where marginal plant is expensive; every 200–300 MW step up in demand through today's data corresponded to price increments of $10–$20/MWh, confirming Queensland's supply stack is steep at these levels.

Demand is now climbing again from the mid-afternoon trough of around 5,728 MW (6:28 AEST) back toward the evening residential load ramp. The trajectory is clear: demand has risen roughly 875 MW in the past two hours, and prices have responded by moving from the low $70s back above $91/MWh. The most recent AEMO forecast for the 7:00 AEST interval is $84.71/MWh, suggesting AEMO's pre-dispatch model expects demand to ease marginally from the current peak or sees some additional supply clearing — though that forecast was published before the latest demand read of 6,603 MW came through, and it should be treated with caution.

The evening demand peak is the key watch for today. If the load ramp toward 7,000 MW or above materialises — consistent with the 7,968 MW seen this morning — prices are well-positioned to spike into the $90–$100/MWh range. Demand-side factors add some complexity: multiple AEMO market notices flagging prices subject to review under Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs) across early morning intervals, plus two lightning-related contingency reclassifications on North Queensland transmission lines, indicate the network has been operating with tightened security margins. Any recurrence of those constraints during the evening ramp would amplify price pressure at current demand levels.