Carbon Forecast

Tasmania is at 0.00 tCO2/MWh with 100% renewables — hydro and wind carrying the entire load with zero fossil dispatch. South Australia is the standout on the mainland at 0.13 tCO2/MWh, with wind delivering 503 MW and renewables covering 74% of regional demand. These two regions are the clear targets for any carbon-sensitive scheduling today. NSW sits at 0.76 tCO2/MWh with black coal supplying 6,345 MW and renewables at just 13%, while Queensland is the dirtiest mainland region at 0.86 tCO2/MWh — 3,100 MW of black coal dominates and renewables contribute a negligible 2.5%, a position that has been essentially flat across the entire day with no meaningful solar or wind displacing thermal baseload.

Victoria is the most carbon-intensive region on the grid at 1.05 tCO2/MWh, driven by 1,655 MW of brown coal with solar contributing nothing at this hour and wind only 175 MW. This is a significant deterioration from the overnight period when Victorian renewables were above 50% and intensity dipped below 0.60 tCO2/MWh — the morning demand ramp pulled brown coal units hard into service from around 07:00 AEST and they have not backed off. SA ran a clean window through the afternoon with intensity reaching as low as 0.08 tCO2/MWh at 05:00 AEST (UTC+10:30 offset noted) on high wind output, and that clean profile is sustaining into the current interval.

For load scheduling recommendations: SA and TAS remain the priority destinations for carbon-sensitive loads through the remainder of today. SA's wind resource is strong and the current 74% renewable penetration shows no sign of collapse based on the trajectory of the past several hours. In NSW, there is a mild improvement possible if solar generation builds through the morning, but with black coal so dominant at over 85% of thermal output, intensity is unlikely to fall below 0.72 tCO2/MWh even at solar peak — avoid NSW for any load that is carbon-constrained. QLD offers no green window today; the grid is effectively coal-locked at ~0.86 tCO2/MWh around the clock. VIC loads should be deferred if possible until overnight, when the historical pattern from this dataset shows wind can push renewables above 50% and intensity can drop toward 0.55–0.62 tCO2/MWh.