regional vic — VIC1

The Victorian spot price sits at $99.41/MWh against a 24-hour backdrop that tells a clear story: overnight prices ranged from $80–$114/MWh through the small hours before a sharp morning peak of $224/MWh at 06:55 AEST, collapsing into near-zero and negative territory through the solar window (prices touched -$4.75/MWh around 10:40–10:45 AEST) before climbing back above $91/MWh through the afternoon and evening as solar output dropped to zero. The current price is therefore sitting at the upper end of the post-solar range, with demand at 4,400 MW — well below the 5,100–5,160 MW seen during the pre-dawn period.

The generation mix is dominated by brown coal at 1,118 MW, followed by gas OCGT at 112 MW, wind at 289 MW, hydro at 56 MW, and solar at 0 MW given the current hour. Renewables are contributing just 17.49% of generation — wind and hydro the sole clean sources — which directly explains the carbon intensity reading of 0.9651 tCO₂/MWh. That is a deterioration from the midday low of around 0.73 tCO₂/MWh when solar and wind were collectively pushing renewable penetration above 37%, and it reflects the structural shift back to brown coal as the dispatch stack fills evening demand without variable renewable support. Grid stress scores are elevated at 73.8/100, with renewable penetration and carbon intensity scores poor at 15.4 and 34.4 respectively.

Predispatch forecasts point to a moderate easing from current levels, with the 07:00 AEST run pricing the next trading interval (08:00 AEST) at $89.25/MWh — down roughly $10/MWh from spot. Load window signals are constructive for flexible demand from 08:00 AEST, with forecast prices in the $59–$71/MWh range, improving to "excellent" quality windows around 08:30 AEST at $26–$40/MWh, and a near-zero $1.21/MWh signal forecast for the 09:00 AEST window as overnight solar ramps in. That price trajectory suggests the market is anticipating a meaningful renewable contribution returning through the morning, consistent with today's autumn sunrise profile and the pattern seen across the prior 24 hours.

On market notices, AEMO has issued a sustained series of "Prices Subject to Review" notices covering NEM-wide overnight intervals from 21:15 AEST through to 03:10 AEST (22 March) under Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs), with two intervals confirmed unchanged. These notices do not currently affect VIC1 pricing directly but signal ongoing AEMO scrutiny of overnight dispatch conditions across the NEM. A separate suspect LOR2 reserve notice is active for Queensland on 24 March between 16:30–17:30 AEST — no direct Victorian impact, but participants with interconnector exposure should monitor SA–VIC flows given any tightening on the QLD–NSW interconnector can alter dispatch merit order dynamics into Victoria.