regional tas — TAS1
Tasmania's spot price sits at $106.72/MWh against a 24-hour backdrop that has ranged from a low of $81.59/MWh during an overnight trough to a morning peak of $192.35/MWh at 06:55 AEST, with prices consolidating in the $96–$107/MWh band through the bulk of today's trading. Demand sits at 955 MW, up from an overnight floor around 845 MW and trending upward as evening load builds. The overnight session was marked by an extended run of sub-$97/MWh pricing — sustained from around 22:20 AEST through to 04:00 AEST — before stepping back up to the current $106–$107/MWh range as morning demand recovered.
The generation mix is 100% renewable. Hydro is carrying the load at 353.59 MW, with wind contributing 23.62 MW. Gas OCGT sits at zero. Carbon intensity is 0 tCO2/MWh with 100% renewable penetration, a position that has held without interruption across every half-hour interval in the carbon history dataset. Tonight's temperature of 11.6°C and a heating demand index of 6.4 are consistent with the modest but steady demand profile typical of late-March in Tasmania.
Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST half-hour (21:00 UTC) point to $107.19/MWh, in line with current settlement. Earlier predispatch runs at 03:01 AEST had the same interval pencilled at $128.20/MWh before successive revisions pulled it back to $107.19/MWh — a material downward correction that reflects improving supply conditions or Basslink flow adjustments. The load optimisation windows flag the 08:00 AEST half-hour (22:00 UTC) as the best near-term value opportunity at approximately $90.22/MWh, classified "good", before prices step back toward the $96–$107/MWh range for the remainder of the visible predispatch horizon.
On market notices: the active STPASA LOR2 suspect notice for Queensland on 24 March (16:30–17:30 AEST) has no direct bearing on Tasmania but could tighten Basslink scheduling if mainland reserves come under pressure mid-week. Separately, AEMO has issued a cluster of Manifestly Incorrect Inputs reviews across multiple overnight intervals, though the confirmed notices indicate prices remain unchanged following review. Traders should note several intervals from 02:45–03:10 AEST today remain under active review pending resolution.