regional sa — SA1
The South Australian spot price sits at $109.71/MWh against a demand of 1,221 MW as of 6:30 AEST this morning. That price is materially softer than the elevated levels seen through overnight trading, where the market ran persistently in the $125–$170/MWh band from roughly 11:30 PM to 3:00 AM AEST, with an isolated spike to $262/MWh at 11:40 AM UTC. The current reading represents a settling back toward the $110/MWh floor that has acted as a soft support level throughout much of the overnight session. Grid stress scores at 73.8 out of 100 signal a tightly balanced system despite the modest demand figure, reflecting the region's ongoing reliance on dispatchable gas to backstop intermittent wind.
The current generation mix is carrying 218 MW of wind, 162 MW of gas CCGT, and 120 MW of gas OCGT, with solar at zero given the early morning hour. Total dispatchable generation from gas plant sits at approximately 282 MW, meaning gas is supplying well over half of local generation. Renewable penetration is 43.66% at the latest interval, up from a trough of around 14–17% seen through the mid-afternoon AEST period when wind dropped sharply and carbon intensity peaked at 0.4772 tCO2/MWh. Current carbon intensity sits at 0.3143 tCO2/MWh, tracking in the right direction as wind output recovers, though still well above the sub-0.18 tCO2/MWh readings achieved when renewables briefly exceeded 63% penetration during the solar-wind overlap window around 3:30–5:00 PM AEST.
Predispatch forecasts for the 7:00 AEST half-hour are anchored at $110.44/MWh, the most recent run having revised down from a prior $119.80/MWh estimate issued at the 5:31 AEST run. That downward revision is consistent with improving wind conditions — current wind speed is only 5.4 km/h but forecasts suggest a modest recovery — and low Sunday morning demand. Load window analysis flags the 7:30 AEST and 8:00 AEST intervals as offering materially lower weighted prices in the $35–$54/MWh range, rated "excellent," suggesting predispatch expects a meaningful price softening as rooftop solar begins to contribute to net demand suppression through the morning.
On market notices, AEMO has issued a suspect LOR2 reserve notice for Queensland on 24 March between 16:30 and 17:30 AEST — this does not directly affect SA but warrants monitoring given potential interconnector flow implications on Heywood if Queensland tightens. Separately, there are multiple active "Prices Subject to Review" notices for early-morning intervals today under Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs), covering intervals from approximately 02:35 to 03:10 AEST; these are under AEMO review and have not yet resulted in price revisions, but traders with positions in those windows should note the exposure. Renewable penetration and carbon intensity scores (15.4 and 34.4 respectively on gridIQ's composite scale) remain weak relative to SA's potential, reflecting the overnight gas-heavy dispatch profile. The outlook improves through mid-morning as solar ramps.